Motorsport.com predicts the 2017 Le Mans 24 Hours
Ahead of Wednesday night's first qualifying session, the Motorsport.com team gives its verdict on who will come out top of the 85th running of the legendary Le Mans 24 Hours.
Photo by: Nikolaz Godet
The panel
Charles Bradley (CB) - Global Editor-in-Chief
Jamie Klein (JK) - UK Editor, Motorsport.com
Sam Smith (SS) - Special contributor
Guillaume Nedelec (GN) - News editor, Motorsport.com France
Benjamin Vinel (BV) - News editor, Motorsport.com France
Filip Cleeren (FC) - News editor, Motorsport.com Netherlands
Edd Straw (ES) - Autosport Editor-in-Chief
Gary Watkins (GW) - Special contributor
Who will take pole position?
CB: I think Toyota is going to want it all in 2017, after the heartbreak of last year. I expect whomever it choses for the glory run to get close to the lap record – if weather and track conditions play ball. I’ll go for Kamui Kobayashi in the #7 car with a 3m16.5s lap.
JK: Based on test day form, it’s impossible to look beyond Toyota to take pole, and Kamui Kobayashi seems to be establishing himself as the quickest of all the Japanese marque’s drivers. My money’s on an all-Toyota front row, with the #7 shading the #8.
SS: I think that Kamui Kobayashi will take pole, not just because he was fastest in the test day but he has established himself over the last 12 months as one of the most rapid LMP1 drivers when the conditions are right. He flew at Le Mans last year, and is a class act in the '17 spec Toyota TS050 Hybrid. I'll also wager he will beat Neel Jani's 2015 lap record.
GN: I think Toyota will get pole position quite easily. On a lap they are way ahead, and I don't think that Porsche will take the risk of crashing out a car while trying to get the fastest time. I'd lean to the #7 car with Stephane Sarrazin, who has always been a strong qualifier since his Peugeot days.
BV: Pole position is likely to be achieved by a Toyota, given the gap in pace that we've seen lately. Maybe the #8 car could manage it with Anthony Davidson, Sebastien Buemi and Kazuki Nakajima, although Kamui Kobayashi's sheer pace can't be forgotten.
FC: I don’t think anyone, including Porsche, will bet against a Toyota front row based on their test day speed. I would actually be surprised if Porsche were to chase one lap pace as they are guaranteed a fourth and fifth place on the grid. Step forward Kamui Kobayashi for a new lap record in the #7 Toyota.
ES: The Toyota will surely be the fastest car, and Buemi will battle the sister #7 car for pole and might, just, prevail.
GW: Toyota’s advantage on one-lap pace, combined with the strides it’s made over the past year in getting the most out of its hybrid systems in qualifying, makes it a clear favourite for the pole. I’ll plump for Kobayashi to do the honours.
VERDICT: It's a clean sweep for Toyota, with Kobayashi our favoured poleman in the #7 car.
What will the overall podium be?
CB: Two Toyotas and a Porsche. The #8 car winning from the #7, with the #1 Porsche in third.
JK: With no Audi and a numerical advantage against Porsche, Toyota will probably never have a better chance at sealing the victory that has eluded it for so long. Following last year’s last-lap heartbreak, I have the feeling the #8 trio may finally be rewarded with the victory that was snatched from their grasp so cruelly 12 months ago. I’ll go with the #2 Porsche and the #7 Toyota to complete the podium.
SS: What a story of redemption it would be if Buemi, Davidson and Nakajima won this year. Their form has been superb in 2017 - there was some luck at Spa of course, but they have been very strong and I think they could create one of the best feel-good stories in motorsport of recent years. That said, I don't necessarily think Toyota are a shoe-in for a 1-2, so I am going to go with the Porsche of Bernhard, Bamber and Hartley in second and then then the Conway, Kobayashi and Sarrazin Toyota third.
GN: On paper I see two Toyotas and a Porsche on the podium. In fact, I can't forget the Peugeot in 2010, against Audi, being so strong in pace and yet so fragile in the race. Having an LMP2 or the ByKolles on the podium would not be a massive surprise.
BV: One could imagine both full-time Toyotas being joined on the podium by a Porsche, for instance the #2 car. But who knows if an LMP2 car could get there, in case there’s a lot of attrition.
FC: I know everyone’s expecting, and many are hoping, for a Toyota win after what happened last year, but you can never rule out Porsche to get the job done during the race. I am going for a narrow win for the #8 Toyota, chased home by the #1 Porsche and the #7 Toyota.
ES: Toyota has lost Le Mans so many times, so it's risky to predict a win but the WEC-leading crew will be favourites. On the basis a Porsche and a Toyota might hit trouble, I've gone for the #1 Porsche to get second with what will likely be very much the third Toyota having a solid run behind.
GW: Toyota wins the race after a close fight with Porsche. The Japanese manufacturer’s advantage will be much reduced in the race, but it will have just enough to end its 30-plus year wait for victory. I’ll go for Buemi, Davidson and Nakajima to win the race. The #2 car leads the challenge for Porsche this time - Bernhard and Hartley’s Le Mans luck has got to turn some time. Kobayashi, Conway and Sarrazin take the final spot on the podium for Toyota.
VERDICT: Toyota gets our unanimous verdict, with the #8 crew of Buemi, Davidson and Nakajima our clear favourite to put the ghosts of 2016 firmly to rest.
Who will take class honours in LMP2 and GTE?
CB: It’s clearly going to be an Oreca in LMP2, but which one? G-Drive and Rebellion look like the firm favourites, with Jackie Chan DC Racing and Manor in the mix. I’ll go with the #26 G-Drive. In GTE Pro, after last year’s Ford dominance I’ll pick a different winner for 2017. I think it’ll be a Ferrari versus Porsche war, with the #91 Porsche pipping the #71 Ferrari. In the Am class, I’ll go for the #98 Aston Martin with the Scuderia Corsa Ferraris right behind.
JK: LMP2 looks like being an all-Oreca affair up front, but with so many strong teams it’s still hard to pick a winner – I’ll say the #26 G-Drive by a whisker from the #13 Rebellion. GTE Pro is equally tough to call, especially amid BoP chicanery, but I fancy Ford to defend its title, potentially with the Priaulx-Tincknell-Derani axis. As for GTE Am, I think Will Stevens’ choice to eschew LMP2 could be rewarded with a class win in the #84 JMW car.
SS: In my mind there are at least six cars that can win the LMP2 class on pace. I expect a fight between the #26 G-Drive, the #31 Rebellion and the #38 Jackie Chan DC Racing car. I've been massively impressed by Thomas Laurent, so I will go with the Jota-run Oreca. In GTE Pro I think that Porsche could spring a surprise, but ultimately won't be quite strong enough to repel a Ferrari or a Ford. So, I am going for the #51 Ferrari, despite di Grassi having to drop out. I can see the #98 Aston Martin laying to rest the ghosts of 2015, with Lamy, Lauda and Dalla Lana getting the win in GTE Am.
GN: I'm pretty confident about the performance of TDS Racing and G-Drive. Thiriet-Rusinov-Lynn are probably the best team. Rebellion's Senna-Canal-Prost line-up is strong too, not to mention the two Alpines. For me, they're all equal for the victory, with the Jackie Chan DC Racing a strong contender too. In GTE Pro, my heart says Corvette, but I think it will be a Ford-Ferrari duel, Risi Competizione included. In GTE Am, I can see the #98 Aston Martin having a great race.
BV: Oreca clearly have the edge in LMP2 and one can imagine the Alpines and Rebellions fighting for the win, as well as TDS Racing. Ford will always be a force to be reckoned with in GTE Pro, while GTE Am should be hotly contested. The #98 Aston Martin with Dalla Lana, Lamy and Lauda could be a safe bet.
FC: In the extremely competitive LMP2 class Rebellion have two fast bullets in their gun. I’m going for a win for the #31 Senna-Prost-Canal car. In GTE Pro the #71 Ferrari is looking very strong with the JMW Ferrari a top contender in GTE Am.
ES: Rebellion is a well-established team, and although sister car could be its hare, the second car will also be strong - and gets my vote for LMP2. As for GTE Pro, Ford is very focused on Le Mans, so I'm going to say the Test Day pace is an illusion. With a clean run, the Blue Oval will be very much in the hunt. In GTE Am, Lamy is still a class act, Lauda knows what he's doing and Dalla Lana is arguably the best bronze driver out there.
GW: Jackie Chan is going to be doing kung fu kicks on the podium. His team has two strong cars and Jota knows how to win this race. I’ll go for the best of its two cars driven by Jarvis, Tung and Laurent to take the LMP2 victory. Ferrari turns the tables on Ford in GTE Pro after another close race. Ford is still in the hunt despite its Balance of Performance hits, but Ferrari wins with AF Corse. Calado and Pier Guidi do the bulk of the driving to win with late stand-in Rugolo.
VERDICT: LMP2 is a split vote, with G-Drive, Rebellion and DC Racing each getting two votes. Ford narrowly edges Ferrari in GTE Pro, while Aston Martin gets the nod for GTE Am.
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