Analysis

How Shane van Gisbergen's Mexico win completely changes the playoff picture

SVG took a wrecking ball to the playoff points battle in Mexico City, but how exactly does he big win change things?

In NASCAR's 'win and you're in' championship format, winning a race is the most important thing a driver can do during the season. No matter where a driver is in points, if they compete full-time and win any regular season race, then they immediately become part of the playoff battle.

Shane van Gisbergen (SVG) entered the race at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez 33rd in the championship standings. He went on to win the race with Trackhouse Racing, bumping him up to 30th, but if the playoffs started today, he would be inside the top sixteen.

SVG is the tenth different driver to win this year, leaving just six spots left in the playoff field with ten races remaining in the regular season. Chase Elliott, who is fourth in the regular season standings, is actually ranked eleventh in the playoff standings since he is still winless in 2025.

How things have changed

Ryan Preece, Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing Ford

Photo by: Sean Gardner / Getty Images

In a world where SVG did not win on Sunday and there wasn't another surprise, here's how the cut-line would look at the moment: Ryan Preece would be on the bubble in 16th place, 24 points clear of Michael McDowell and 26 points clear of AJ Allmendinger. Above Preece, his RFK Racing teammate Chris Buescher would hold a 43-point buffer with Alex Bowman 46 points above the danger zone.

However, that is not the reality we now find ourselves in. Instead, Buescher is on the bubble with Preece 19 points outside of the playoffs. McDowell is 43 points out and Allmendinger 45 points out. Above Buescher, Bowman's margin is sliced down to just +22 points. Essentially, every driver in this battle lost 19 points to the cut-line with the red line moving up from Preece to Buescher. Of note, Preece sacrificed track position in order to win the first stage and those ten bonus points could be incredibly valuable in the weeks to come.

And believe it or not, SVG is not the lowest driver in the standings to ever win their way into the playoffs. Harrison Burton was 34th in the regular season standings just one year ago when he scored a shock win at Daytona. SVG's victory isn't exactly a shock as many expected him to do exactly this in at least one of the five road/street courses on the schedule before the playoffs begin.

And technically, he's not locked into the playoffs yet, as it is possible to have seven new winners in the next ten races -- however unlikely. But at the moment, the Cup rookie is playoff-bound. Another battle to keep an eye on is the Rookie of the Year fight between SVG and 23XI Racing's Riley Herbst. The two drivers have been relatively close in points until now and should Herbst fail to win his way into the playoffs too, then van Gisbergen will be the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Rookie of the Year.