Denny Hamlin sets realistic final NASCAR win total prediction

His final contract is set to end after next season concludes

For much of the past several seasons, Denny Hamlin said reaching 60 career NASCAR Cup Series wins was his most important career goal, even more than the elusive championship, and he now sits at 61 after winning on Sunday at Las Vegas.

He always said ‘60’ was the most important competitive goal, because he couldn’t control his destiny in the championship battle, for reasons ultimately validated at Phoenix in November when a caution for three laps to go denied him again.

However, to Hamlin, winning as many races is possible is his truest yardstick of success so what comes next after reaching 61st and sole possession of 10th on the all-time wins list? Win some more.

“We have next Darlington, Kansas, right? Martinsville,” Hamlin said on his Actions Detrimental podcast on Monday. “I’m just thinking of the tracks. Get another win, that’s the goal. One of those two races. One of those three. Talladega, I wish, guys. I wish. I’m trying everything when it comes to superspeedway racing, just not getting the proper finishes. I’m trying to run up front as much as I can, doesn’t matter. Crash.”

Richard Petty 200
David Pearson 105
Jeff Gordon 93
Donnie Allison 85
Darrell Waltrip 84
Jimmie Johnson 83
Cale Yarborough 83
Dale Earnhardt 76
Kyle Busch 63
Denny Hamlin 61

So with what he expects to be final contract ending at the end of next season, where does Hamlin expect to finish on this list?

“I thought that realistically it was… I think … I don’t know … I’m going to fall at 67,” Hamlin said. “That’s where I think it ends more than likely. And then the next year, more than likely 67. That’s just by the numbers. That’s not any, ‘Oh I feel this, I feel that.’ That’s just where the numbers land averaging what I average.”

That would be the 3-4 wins a year average that he is generally good for these days.