Analysis: Can Dale Jr really still make the Chase on points?

Provided Earnhardt Jr. returns before the end of the regular season – and also provided NASCAR hands him a Chase waiver – he could still win his way into the play-offs.

Of the five tracks remaining after Pocono, he's won at Bristol (once), Michigan (twice) and Richmond (three times).

But the #88 team can't exactly bank on winning – and the question then would be whether Dale Jr. will retain any chances of points-racing into the Chase after Pocono if he's fit to return for Watkins Glen?

Pocono aftermath

Earnhardt's position didn't look that safe prior to the missed races, so three absences in a row should, in theory, end his chances at locking in a spot in the Chase.

But last weekend, the Indianapolis Motor Speedway was not terribly kind to a number of drivers vying for the points positions. Ryan Newman and Ryan Blaney were collected by a Carl Edwards wreck, Trevor Bayne crashed with Clint Bowyer, AJ Allmendinger's car blew an engine.

As such, ahead of Pocono, Earnhardt Jr. is only 11 points off the final of what is currently set to be five Chase tickets decided on championship standings.

Theoretical points standings after Pocono, based on:

Presented above are rough models of what the Chase points race could look like after Pocono, using average Pocono finishes, average 2016 finishes and this year's Axalta 'We Paint Winners' 400 as ways to calculate the new standings.

It's clear that missing Pocono will hit Earnhardt Jr.'s Chase chances hard, given his second-place finish earlier in the year and the fact that, if they stay out of trouble, Chase Elliott and Austin Dillon (and perhaps Ryan Newman) will almost certainly put themselves out of reach.

They're not predictions, of course, but only ways to show how the table could evolve after the second Pocono race under the current NASCAR system – putting the bonus points aside, because the exact numbers aren't essential.

In all three models, Kyle Larson remains in the final Chase transfer spot, his advantage over Earnhardt around 40 points or so. And that's not unassailable by any stretch of the imagination.

Larson's hopes of a points spot in the Chase seemed basically over after the first third of the season, and – just five races ago – the #42 was 43 points off 15^th, the spot it occupies now.

As such, making a return at Watkins Glen could make a big difference for the #88. Then again, obviously, if a Glen appearance has a serious chance of hurting Dale Jr.'s recovery, whatever difference it makes to the points will not be big enough.

A better track for Gordon

Jeff Gordon's Brickyard run last weekend was more or less par for the course, exactly as expected. The four-time adapted in no time, brought the car home for a very respectable points haul and added another solid finish to his stellar Indianapolis record – but never really challenged for victory and didn't exactly run Jimmie Johnson close for the spot of the top Hendrick driver.

A return victory bid at IMS for Gordon looked not impossible, but certainly unlikely. But, with one race to get back in the groove and an even better track coming up, this weekend might be a different story.

In Pocono's history books, Gordon doesn't top every category the same way he does at IMS. He leads in wins (six) and laps led (1040), but Mark Martin ties him on top fives and has more top 10s.

But while most of Gordon's success at IMS came earlier in his career, there's no clear pattern for his Pocono performances. He's been good there throughout – and, between 2011 and 2015, Gordon has led the field in points scored at the Tricky Triangle.

Add to that HMS' run at Pocono earlier in the year (three cars in the top six) and it all adds up to a much better chance of a fairytale outcome.

Form guide

Earlier in the season, we posited the question of whether Pocono would give HMS a second Chase ticket and turn around its whole campaign. Unsurprisingly, on a track that seems to favor the organization quite a bit, Hendrick's winless trio did end up running quite well, but could not see off the fellow Chevy of Pocono ace Kurt Busch.

Axalta "We Paint Winners" 400 2016 results, select drivers

A Chevrolet winning again is far from a given, however, as both Ford and Toyota have reasons to expect a victory challenge from drivers within their camps.

On Ford's side, Brad Keselowski very nearly won June's race on fuel mileage – often an important factor at Pocono and one the Penske cars seem to currently excel at.

On Toyota's side, there's Matt Kenseth, who won the August race last year and led 31 laps in June to his teammates' combined total of three.

After last weekend's Brickyard 400, many will expect Kyle Busch to be a surefire victory contender, but there's lots of factors suggesting against it.

The reigning champion looked strong at Pocono in 2010-2011 and could've snatched a fuel mileage win last year, but he's never really dominated at the Tricky Triangle. And, while Pocono and Indianapolis are similar, success at one doesn't mathematically ensure success at the other – it certainly hasn't for Kyle's brother Kurt.