Friday in Fuji

 As I write this on Friday evening in the dark at Fuji, it is starting to rain. Only lightly, but enough to remind you that the weather here can be very unpredictable and that rain is never very far away.

 This morning the sky was blue and the view of Mount Fuji was spectacular. The two practice sessions took place in perfect conditions, but the locals are talking about rain tomorrow and a dry race on Sunday.

 McLaren and Ferrari look pretty well matched again. I was interested in Ferrari’s performance advantage in Singapore over McLaren as it looked like they had taken a big step and if that proved to be the case this might carry them through to the end of the season.

 But in fact I think Lewis wasn’t really at his best in Singapore and that masks the true performance picture. We will see this weekend. There is no doubt that after a run of races through the summer where the McLaren was the fastest car in qualifying, it now seems that the Ferrari is slightly stronger and Massa is really in the zone on the single lap qualifying run.

 McLaren as a team are working very well, much better than last year and there is a calmness about them. Ferrari have had that for ages, but it seemed to slip a bit in Singapore when they had that pit stop cock-up and I would not be surprised if they were a little edgy here as a result. They have been so successful for so long and their processes are so good that the confidence will surely return quickly.

 Nevertheless, this weekend is an opportunity for McLaren to take control of the situation and here’s why; if Hamilton scores 10 points on Sunday he will be in a position where he can trail home third behind the Ferraris in the last two races and still win the title. In that scenario the matter is out of Ferrari’s hands, they would have to rely on a mistake by Hamilton and McLaren or for Kubica to get in front of him which is unlikely at this stage. At least as things stand now, with seven points the gap, Ferrari have it in their hands to win the title by taking three on-two finishes.

 Alonso was fast again today and I’m really very impressed with the way Renault has improved its car this year. At the start of the year they were over a second off the pace and now, even though they are giving away probably three tenths of a second in horsepower alone, they are getting closer to the outright pace. It’s tempting to think that once they are allowed to boost engine power over the winter, to make the engines more evenly matched, they will be a serious competitor next season.

 The Spaniard is waiting to see how the current economic crisis affects Renault’s commitment to F1 and the budget it allocates, Team boss Flavio Briatore had  a meeting with the boss of Renault, Carlos Ghosn, this week and given that the company has laid off 5,000 workers in France, it’s hard to imagine that the conversation wasn’t about taking money out of the F1 budget.

 Alonso left the team last time because of lack of commitment and with a huge offer on the table to go to Honda he has options. I think he’d prefer to stay at Renault for  a year or two and then make a real play for Raikkonen’s seat at Ferrari, because if he commits to Honda he will not move again, that will be it for him. So he can afford to wait and that will hold up the driver market for some time.