Ralf Schumacher puts timeline on Max Verstappen Red Bull exit decision

Ralf Schumacher believes Max Verstappen could leave Red Bull if their performance doesn’t improve in the next few races, with Mercedes emerging as a likely destination.

Former Formula 1 driver Ralf Schumacher has predicted that Max Verstappen will seek to leave Red Bull if they can't improve their car over the next few races. Speaking to the Formel1.de YouTube channel ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix, he set out a timeline for the four-time champion.

The Milton Keynes squad has fallen short of expectations this season after a strong few years in the ground-effect era. Sitting fourth in the constructors' standings with 36 points after just three races - including China's sprint race - they are lagging significantly behind current pace setters McLaren who currently hold 78 points between drivers Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.

The RB21 machine has been difficult to master, leading to the dropping of Liam Lawson just two race weekends into the 2025 season. Verstappen, admitting that the car is "the fourth-fastest car behind McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes," is also clearly not happy with it. The Dutchman sits eight points behind the championship leader, Norris.

Red Bull's issues, like many cars on the grid, appear to revolve around how it switches on and manages its tyres. As we saw in China, Verstappen struggled on the medium tyres but his car's performance improved rapidly on the hards. But, for a driver looking to win his fifth consecutive championship, this simply isn't good enough.

"I think Max will leave the team. Especially if nothing happens in the next two, three or four races, because then the decision will be made," Schumacher said.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

McLaren racing boss Zak Brown has also weighed in on the idea that Verstappen may be looking elsewhere.

"I think he’ll leave at the end of this year," he told The Telegraph. "Most likely to Merc. If I was bettering, I'd bet on Merc. In the last 10 years, they've won the championship seven or eight times."

On top of this, the Brackley outfit is expected to have a potent powertrain come the regulation changes in 2026. With the sport adding more emphasis to its hybrid powertrains, Red Bull's new partnership with Ford could be a gamble for the reigning champion. Mercedes, on the other hand, has over ten years of experience building hybrid powertrains, with the squad commanding the majority of the hybrid era.

The upcoming triple-header of races in Japan, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, will be important for Red Bull as they try to salvage their season. With Yuki Tsunoda sat alongside Verstappen, the pair will be aiming for podiums. But if this isn't possible, will the flying Dutchman be looking elsewhere?