Why the Bahrain GP won't be decided by qualifying

Circuit layout, high ambient temperatures and abrasive track surface count against a repeat of last weekend’s processional Japanese Grand Prix

So far every Formula 1 grand prix this year has been won from pole position – and, in the most recent one in Japan, the running order was notably static since tyre characteristics militated against strategic divergence at a track on which it is difficult to overtake.

But the first three rounds of the season are held on circuits that have little in common with other venues on the calendar. Bahrain has a more conventional layout with more overtaking opportunities, while the openness of the track surface and the heat of the desert location are more punishing on tyres.

“I definitely feel that, unlike the last three races, this won’t be dominated by qualifying this weekend,” Mercedes’ George Russell told F1 TV after practice.

“It’s going to be dominated by race pace, by tyre degradation. So, of course you want to have a good qualifying, but the race is where the action will be.”

Bahrain is among track architect Hermann Tilke’s better creations. Although it still features his signature slow corners, fiddly camber changes, and big stops at the end of long-ish straights, other characteristics have brought it into play as a good racing venue.

As well as the heavy braking areas, there are corners that require big applications of throttle, plus sequences which combine to lure drivers into taking liberties with track limits. Turns 9 and 10, an open left-hander followed by a tighter one, ask a lot of car balance and can leave drivers bogged down with understeer or locking up the front axle when what is needed is a tidy entry and exit for the straight that follows.

Ferrari's FP1 stand-in Dino Beganovic in Turn 10

Photo by: Fadel Senna - AFP - Getty Images

Also, the track surface is the most ‘open’ (i.e. rough) of the tracks F1 visits: its aggregate, sourced on the Shropshire borders in the UK, has a high granite content to ensure durability. The circuit’s owners got good value for money because, apart from various damage-repair patches, it hasn’t required resurfacing in 21 years.

Little wonder, then, that it has become such a battleground in the Pirelli era, where the tyres are deliberately engineered to degrade but sometimes that sensitivity comes at a cost. There are complicated set-up trade-offs to be made since teams can deliberately lean more towards an understeering car to protect the sensitive rears, but this can cost lap time in areas where Tilke has laid traps to induce front-end slides.

Another rogue factor this weekend is the temperature: standard for Bahrain at this time of year, but very different from the conditions that greeted the teams at the pre-season test in late February. Up and down the grid, the story has been one of consigning the knowledge from the test to history and starting virtually afresh.

Even the McLaren drivers who led both practice sessions sounded far from sanguine afterwards: Lando Norris said “everything feels dreadful but the car is in a reasonable place”.

Oscar Piastri, who led FP2 with nearly four tenths in hand over the fastest non-McLaren, was similarly quick to manage expectations.

“It’s nice to have it [a margin] now,” he said, “but Bahrain is a track you can overtake on and high deg here is a big factor, so qualifying is still important but I think we need to make sure we have a good race car as well.”