Talking point: Who will drive next for Ferrari ?

Ferrari team principal Maurizio Arrivabene fired the starting gun on the 2016 driver market yesterday by saying that if Kimi Raikkonen wants to stay at Ferrari next season, "he needs to push and he knows that".

The Finn, at 35, is the oldest driver on the grid. Last year he underperformed and at the end of the 2015 season put out some confused signals about stopping, which he later withdrew. This year, with a car more suited to his driving style, he has looked far more competitive, although he has yet to put a complete weekend together, the Finn missing a strong qualifying session in particular.

"You want to know what I said to Kimi?" said Arrivabene yesterday in Bahrain. "He was telling me about the contract and I said to him, 'it depends on your performance'. And Kimi, he’s the kind of person that he appreciates when you’re talking with him in a very transparent way and straight to his face. Kimi knows now it’s early to talk about this at the moment.

"I’m happy about the performance of Kimi but he needs to push and he knows that."

Arrivabene is certainly leaving the door open for Raikkonen to continue for another year, but is mindful that Ferrari needs to find the right driver to put alongside Vettel for the long term. Clearly the German, at 2,  and deeply in love with his new team, is there for the long haul.

So the question arises, who will drive next for Ferrari?

Prior to his accident at Suzuka last year, it looked like Jules Bianchi was destined for the role. He was due to race for Sauber this year, which given how Nasr and Ericsson have fared in the car so far, would likely have gone  pretty well,  and then he might have been elevated to the scarlet cars.

The next driver on the line from Ferrari's Driver Academy is Rafaele Marciello, who is racing in GP2 this season. Interestingly, last year Ferrari's then team principal Stefano Domenicali asked Daniel Morelli to manage him. The wily Italian is one of the top managers in the sport and was Robert Kubica's manager in F1 until the Pole's rallying accident.

Ferrari also has Estaban Gutierrez and Jean-Eric Vergne on its books. The hiring of Gutierrez was linked to the arrival of sponsorship from Carlos Slim's Claro brand on the car and he attends races as reserve driver, having failed to set the world on fire with Sauber, despite a stellar junior racing career.

Vergne works on the simulator as a development driver, which seems rather a waste of his talents, bearing in mind how he performed against Daniel Ricciardo and Daniil Kvyat in the last two seasons at Toro Rosso.

Where things get interesting is that this summer the new US-based Haas F1 team will need to start putting in place drivers for its debut season in 2016. Given that Haas will essentially be Ferrari's B team, with engine, gearbox and as many Ferrari parts on their car as the regulations allow, it follows that Ferrari is likely to use the relationship to use one of its three drivers who are currently not racing.

If Marciello (above left with Haas team principal Gunther Steiner centre) proves himself in GP2 this year he could be a candidate and if the new Ferrari management is really serious about the Academy and wants to promote a driver to the race team, then a few years at Haas would make sense as a preparation. He is currently parked at Sauber in a reserve and occasional Friday practice driver role.

But Haas have indicated that they plan to have an experienced driver in one of the cars for their first season and this could be either Vergne or Gutierrez.

Vergne, who has been racing in Formula E, recently hinted that a racing comeback in F1 is possible.

"I quit Toro Rosso but I arrived in Ferrari and I still have chance to get back next year," he told Formula E web magazine Current E Insights. "I wouldn’t say you’d get a chance after being away for two years, but after just one year, there’s a chance."

Ideally Haas would like an American in the other car and the only one with a superlicence currently is Alex Rossi, who is one of the challengers for the GP2 championship this season in a strong field.

So both he and Marciello have a real motivation to perform in the feeder series this season.

But one senses that none of the three Ferrari-retained drivers is a candidate for Raikkonen's seat in 2016, so as Arrivabene says, if he performs he is likely to do another year, but if there is doubt, there will be pressure for Ferrari to look outside for another driver, with Valterri Bottas the most obvious choice. He made the breakthrough to the big time last season with Williams and will have about the right level of experience by the end of the season to satisfy Ferrari.

The Finn has not yet bounced back fully from his back injury in Australia, but having Massa as a team mate is a useful benchmark for Ferrari, as they know more about Massa's capabilities than any other team.

Of course, until Lewis Hamilton puts a pen to sign his new Mercedes contract, there will be speculation about him; Ferrari could look to field a superteam with the added advantage of seriously weakening Mercedes by removing their champion driver.

But the cost would be astronomical and it would be very hard to manage the pair's expectations.

Meanwhile, Sebastian Vettel's effect on the culture inside Ferrari is already noticeable, according to Arrivabene, who made some interesting comments about the similarity between Sebastian Vettel and Michael Schumacher in terms of what they bring to the Ferrari team.

"(He's) very, very strong, very precise. Many, many journalists, they were asking about him and Michael," he said. "I said the things they have in common is the culture but then they are two different drivers with two different characters. But somehow, when you recognise that, there is something in common. I think this is based… this is a cultural base. It has nothing to do with the personality of the two.

"It’s the enthusiasm and the passion... a driver that is so committed to Ferrari is making our job easy, I have to say. And on top, he’s said many, many times that since he was a kid, he was dreaming about Ferrari and he always liked it. Of course, last year it was impossible for him to say so, but now he’s liberated and he’s telling the truth."

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