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Formula 1 Dutch GP

F1 Form Guide: Dutch Grand Prix

Max Verstappen is favourite to celebrate victory with his home crowd this weekend – but further down the pack there is plenty to play for?

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB18

Verstappen is unbeaten at his home circuit in the two times the Dutch Grand Prix has run in the modern era, winning both from pole and last year taking a clean-sweep of pole, victory and fastest lap.

In a season where the Dutch driver has dominated, it is hard to expect anything other than a hat-trick of home victories this weekend. The interest, once again, will therefore most likely move further down the order.

So, as F1 heads to the Netherlands, what can we expect?

KNOCK-OUT CHANCES

The battle for pole could be interesting because the circuit is so close to the coastline the drivers can often be upset by gusts of wind from the North Sea and sand being deposited on the track making it suddenly slippery.

Tweaks to this year's regulations are also believed to have made the cars more sensitive to windy conditions and that could make for some unexpected results in qualifying – so there may be more of a chance a top driver will miss the cut.

PODIUM CHALLENGERS

Lando Norris, McLaren MCL60

Lando Norris, McLaren MCL60

Photo by: Erik Junius

Looking beyond Verstappen, who is at 1/4 for the win, there are plenty of contenders for the podium places. This year's 'best of the rest' battle is heating up, and of all the contenders it could be McLaren leading the chase this weekend.

The track has some extremely high-speed corners and, as a result, tyre supplier Pirelli will be providing some of its harder compounds for the race. That suited McLaren very well at Silverstone, so expect something similar at Zandvoort.

Lando Norris is 123/100 for a podium, but Mercedes could also be worth a look as they found a sweet spot last year with George Russell second and Lewis Hamilton fourth. They are 29/5 and 61/50 respectively for a podium this time.

Overtaking is tough and there have only been four races when the pole sitter has finished off the podium. In fact, in 2021, the top five on the grid finished exactly where they started – so it is worth looking at the odds once the grid is formed.

It is also worth noting that only three teams and five drivers have been on the podium at Zandvoort – Red Bull with Verstappen, Mercedes with Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas in 2021 and Russell last year, and Ferrari with Charles Leclerc.

POINTS PLAYERS

The top four teams – Red Bull, Mercedes, Aston Martin and Ferrari – have been consistently filling the top 10 throughout the season. In fact, they took all but 11 of the 100 points-scoring places available in the first 10 races.

On average, that has meant there are just three spaces available in the top 10 for other teams to step into – and Alpine (33/10 for a top 10) could be worth a look as they finished sixth and ninth last year at this track.

The nature of this circuit could help Williams' competitiveness and Alex Albon will be keen to make it back into the points this weekend. Last year he finished 12th, and his odds of a points finish this time are 7/4.

CHANCE CHOICES

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB18, Charles Leclerc, Ferrari F1-75

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB18, Charles Leclerc, Ferrari F1-75

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Max Verstappen won by more than 20 seconds when the race returned to the calendar in 2021, but last year things were far tighter, as the Dutch driver finished a little over four seconds ahead of second-placed George Russell.

The safety car and the virtual safety car interrupted the race last year but the year before every car finished. That is rare – it happened again once in 2022 but has already happened twice this year. The odds of another full finish are 27/5.

For more betting odds and the latest markets on the Dutch Grand Prix and all Formula 1 races, head over to stake.com

NOTE: Odds correct at time of writing

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