Why Jimmie Johnson will be a real threat in the playoffs

The defending series champion, who could surpass Richard Petty and the late Dale Earnhardt by winning an eighth title, is a modest 7-to-1 shot according to the latest Las Vegas odds posted by Bovada, the same as 2014 champion Kevin Harvick and Kyle Larson, who has never won a title.

Sure, Johnson isn't even in the top 10 in the standings. And he hasn’t won since Dover in June. And, yes, Johnson has wrecked in four of the last 11 races. But after the Southern 500 last year, Johnson was 11th in the standings and went on to win his seventh championship.

Once again, it would be foolish to count out the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports team down the stretch.

Traditionally, this is a team that tests its packages over the summer to prepare for the postseason — and the preparation has paid off. Although Johnson hasn’t won the kickoff race at Chicagoland Speedway yet, he’s won at the other nine tracks in the playoffs.

Chicagoland test

Earlier this month, Johnson participated in a two-day test at the 1.5-mile track in Joliet, Ill., in preparation for the Tales of the Turtles 400 on September 17.

“Any laps you can get on a current track on the right tire can be hugely, hugely, beneficial,” Johnson said after the test. “This track is always a lot of fun. It certainly has aged a little more. There’s a little more character in the track — which I appreciate and love and know the rest of the field will as well.”

And any laps on an intermediate track, where Johnson has collected 28 of his 83 career Cup wins, will be beneficial down the stretch, with five of the 10 playoff races being held on those types of venues. Johnson has accumulated 49 of his victories on tracks between one and two miles in length. Eight of the playoff tracks fall into that category.

Final ten races play into Johnson's hands

Speaking of the playoffs, Johnson has scored 28 wins in the final 10 races of the season, since NASCAR instituted the first iteration of a postseason playoff system in 2004. NASCAR’s current format plays right into Johnson’s hands. In each of the three rounds, there’s a track where Johnson has dominated in the past.

In Round 1 there’s Dover, where has 11 career wins, including five victories in the fall race. Johnson has led 3,100 of his 12,179 laps raced at the Monster Mile. His average finish is 9.3 and he’s been running at the finish in 29 of his 31 starts at the track.

There’s a reason Johnson nicknamed Charlotte Motor Speedway “Our House”. Between 2003 and 2005 the No. 48 Lowe’s Chevy visited Victory Lane five times. Johnson went on two win three more races at CMS — which is right down the road from Hendrick Motorsports. He is the defending winner of the Bank of America 500. Last year Johnson led 155 of 334 to advance to Round 3.

While Johnson has gimme tracks in the first two rounds, the third round features two tracks — Martinsville and Texas — where the seven-time champion has accumulated 16-career wins, including 11-playoff victories. Last year’s Martinsville win — the ninth of his career — locked Johnson into the final four at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Johnson’s career-average finish of 7.5 at Martinsville is second only to to the 7.1 he has posted at Fontana. The driver of the No. 48 Chevy has earned 19 top fives and 24 top 10s in 31 starts at the paper-clip shaped track.

The Lone Star State has been kind to Johnson as well. He won there in the spring and has been victorious in six of his last 10 starts at the 1.5-mile speedway.

It appeared that NASCAR had finally Jimmie-proofed the Chase by introducing the Champion’s Round at Homestead-Miami Speedway — until last year. After winning his sixth title in 2013, Johnson fell victim to elimination rounds in 2014 and 2015. But once the Chad Knaus-led crew mastered the path through nine races in 2016, only Homestead stood in their way.

In 15 previous starts, Johnson had never had to win the race to win the title. With the championship on the line last year, Johnson remained patient and persisted until the finish. Although he didn’t have the best car, Johnson was there to claim the trophy at the end.

Johnson doesn't mind playing the role of stealth bomber in the playoffs, but if history is any indicator, the only driver to qualify for every Cup playoff NASCAR has ever held will be fighting for the title with enough firepower to accomplish the task.