How the 2016 Chase grid looks with four races to go

As the Chase creeps nearer, the tension rises in the NASCAR Sprint Cup garage area. With so much on the line, we thought we'd break down the current situation in the championship standings.

There's still several ways the field could change over the next four weeks with five of the 16 slots still up for grabs.

Current Chase Grid

1. Kyle Busch - Joe Gibbs Racing (4 wins)

2. Brad Keselowski - Team Penske (4 wins)

3. Carl Edwards - Joe Gibbs Racing (2 wins)

4. Denny Hamlin - Joe Gibbs Racing (2 wins)

5. Matt Kenseth - Joe Gibbs Racing (2 wins)

6. Jimmie Johnson - Hendrick Motorsports (2 wins)

7. Kevin Harvick - Stewart-Haas Racing

8. Joey Logano - Team Penske  (1 win)

9. Tony Stewart - Stewart-Haas Racing  (1 win)

10. Martin Truex Jr. - Furniture Row Racing  (1 win)

11. Kurt Busch - Stewart-Haas Racing (1 win)

12. Ryan Newman - Richard Childress Racing

13. Chase Elliott - Hendrick Motorsports

14. Austin Dillon - Richard Childress Racing

15. Jamie McMurray - Chip Ganassi Racing

16. Kyle Larson - Chip Ganassi Racing

Newman, Elliott, Dillon, McMurray and Larson are the drivers that hold positions inside the Chase based on points, not wins. They are the drivers at the greatest risk. Here's how much of a cushion they actually have over the cut line...

The Bubble

Ryan Newman +50pts

Chase Elliott +49

Austin Dillon +47

Jamie McMurray +38

Kyle Larson +8

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Trevor Bayne -8

Kasey Kahne -11

Ryan Blaney -18

A.J. Allmendinger -34

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. -45

The only one of these drivers in imminent danger would be Larson, who has Bayne, Kahne and Blaney all breathing down his neck. But he doesn't just have to worry about those directly behind him in points. There's been a monkey wrench thrown into the middle of this Chase battle and his name is Chris Buescher.

The rookie driver and reigning Xfinity Series champion is all the way back in 31st in points, but he is a looming threat to Larson's Chase chances. Buescher's upset victory at Pocono puts him on the fringe of the Chase grid. All he has to do is crack the Top 30 in points and he is just three points back of that goal right now. If he does it and there's a very good chance he will, then the scramble around the bubble shifts immensely.

The Buescher effect

Ryan Newman +42pts

Chase Elliott +41

Austin Dillon +39

Jamie McMurray +30

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Kyle Larson -20

Trevor Bayne -28

Kasey Kahne -31

Ryan Blaney -38

A.J. Allmendinger -54

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. -45

Suddenly, the two Ganassi drivers are paired up against each other and the Chase chances of all those below the cut line gets that much more difficult. And with four races left before the regular season ends, there's still the possibility that another outsider could scoop up a win. Any of the above names are capable of doing so and if it were to happen, the points battle would tighten up to a whole other level. At this moment in time, just 12 points between McMurray, Dillon, Elliott and Newman.

Now for a look at which outsiders could potentially shake up this grid even more before the playoffs (Note: We're are excluding Dale Earnhardt Jr. with still no timetable set for his return). The below rundowns break down which non-winners have, statistically, the best opportunity in the upcoming races.

Bristol Motor Speedway

Best average finish:

Chase Elliott - 4.0 (1 start)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - 11.9 (7 starts)

Greg Biffle - 13.1 (27 starts)

Former winners:

Kasey Kahne - 1 (2013)

Laps Led:

Kasey Kahne - 512

Greg Biffle - 444

Jamie McMurray - 179

Top finishers from last race:

Chase Elliott - 4th

Trevor Bayne - 5th

*Matt DiBenedetto - 6th

*Currently not inside the Top 30

Michigan International Speedway

Best average finish:

Chase Elliott - 2.0 (1 start)

Greg Biffle - 13.1 (27 starts)

Kasey Kahne - 15.7 (25 starts)

Former winners:

Greg Biffle - 4 (2004, 2005, 2012, 2013)

Ryan Newman - 2 (2003, 2004)

Kasey Kahne - 1 (2006)

Laps Led:

Greg Biffle - 527

Ryan Newman - 112

Kasey Kahne - 67

Top finishers from last race:

Chase Elliott - 2nd

Kyle Larson - 3rd

Austin Dillon - 8th

Darlington Raceway

Best average finish:

Kyle Larson - 9.0 (2 starts)

Ryan Newman - 12.2 (17 starts)

Greg Biffle - 13.6 (15 starts)

Former winners:

Greg Biffle - 2 (2005, 2006)

Laps Led:

Greg Biffle - 718

Kasey Kahne - 353

Ryan Newman - 325

Top finishers from last race:

Kyle Larson - 10th

Aric Almirola - 11th

Kasey Kahne - 12th

Richmond International Raceway

Best average finish:

Ryan Newman - 11.7 (29 races)

Clint Bowyer - 12.3 (25 races)

Kyle Larson - 13.2 (5 races)

Former winners:

Clint Bowyer - 2 (2008, 2012)

Kasey Kahne - 1 (2005)

Ryan Newman - 1 (2003)

Laps led:

Ryan Newman - 454

Clint Bowyer - 348

Kasey Kahne - 281

Top finishers from last race:

Kasey Kahne - 4th

Chase Elliott - 12th

Greg Biffle - 14th

Now those are the stats, but in reality, some of it may be misleading. Although the names Biffle and Kahne show up quite a bit on the above lists, they've struggled mightily as of late. Biffle has just one top five and three top tens this year, carrying with him a 21.5 average finish (the worst in his full-time career).

Kahne is marginally better, but still leagues off his Hendrick Motorsport teammates with just two top fives, six top tens and a 2016 average finish of 17th.

Looking strictly at their performances throughout the present season, Elliott, Dillon, Larson, and even Blaney seem the most likely to reach Victory Lane out of this bunch. The interesting thing to note with that is the fact that all four have never even won before, but each has come close on more than one occasion.

To summarize - With four races remaining, there are still five spots inside the Chase up for grabs (four if Buescher has his way), and it's looking to be another nail-bitter going into Richmond. Points may be the only option for some, by all the drivers mentioned in this story have a primary goal in mind:

Win and you're in.