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Analysis: The final race to make the Chase

Four positions are still up for grabs in the 2016 Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Ryan Newman, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet, Jamie McMurray, Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet

Ryan Newman, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet, Jamie McMurray, Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet

General Motors

Race start
Race action
Chris Buescher, Front Row Motorsports Ford
Winner Chris Buescher, Front Row Motorsports Ford
Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet
Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet pole winner
Jamie McMurray, Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet
Jamie McMurray, Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet
Ryan Newman, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet
Ryan Newman, Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet
Kasey Kahne, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
A.J. Allmendinger, JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet, Ryan Blaney, Wood Brothers Racing Ford
Trevor Bayne, Roush Fenway Racing Ford and Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Roush Fenway Racing Ford
Danica Patrick, Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet
Casey Mears, Germain Racing Chevrolet

With just one event — Richmond International Raceway — to decide which drivers transfer into the playoffs — who has the best shot of moving on afterSaturday night? 

Here’s how the top candidates line up:

Chris Buescher

He has a win, but must remain in the top 30 in points to be eligible. Buescher, 30th in the standings, is currently 11 points ahead of 31st-place David Ragan and needs 34 points to guarantee he stays there. The Roush Development driver can lock himself in automatically with a seventh-place finish and no laps led, eighth-place finish and one lap led or ninth-place finish and most laps led.  As long as Buescher remains in the top 30, only three Chase positions will be open.

Buescher finished 34th in his Cup debut at RIR but posted three top 10 in five Xfinity starts. 

Chase Elliott 

He is the driver highest in the Sprint Cup standings without a win. He’s currently 10th in the standings, 312 points ahead of 31st-place David Ragan. Elliott needs to earn 24 points to clinch. The driver of the No. 24 Chevy can accomplish that by finishing 17th with no laps led, 18th and leading one lap or 19th and leading the most laps. If one of the 13 winning drivers repeats, a new winner emerges or Buescher falls out of the top 30, Elliott locks in with a finish of 39th or higher — with no laps led —25th and leading one lap or 26th and leading the most laps. If there’s a repeat winner or Buescher drops out of the top 30, it doesn’t matter where Elliott finishes. Then again, if Elliott wins, he’s in. 

Elliott has two Cup starts at RIR and an average finish of 14th. He’s completed every lap in both races. The former Xinfity Champ also completed every lap in NXS competition with one win and four top fives in as many starts.

Austin Dillon

He is 12th in the Cup standings with a 304-point advantage over 31st-place Ragan. Dillon clinches by earning 33 points or finishing eighth and no laps led, ninth and leading one lap, 10th and leading most laps. With a repeat winner, a new winner, a win by Chase Elliott and Buescher falls out of the top 30, Dillon needs 11 points to clinch: 30th and no laps led, 31st and one lap led, 32nd and most laps led. Dillon clinches with a win or regardless of where he finishes if there is a repeat winner and Buescher falls out of the top 30. 

Dillon has five Cup starts at RIR. His best finish was 20th twice. In eight NXS starts, the former Xfinity Champ has one top-five finish and five top-10 finishes. 

Jamie McMurray 

He is currently 13th in the standings, 295-points ahead of Ragan. Newman’s misfortunes expanded McMurray’s cushion. Instead of a six-point advantage, McMurray must remain 21 points ahead of Newman and hope that someone outside of the top 12 doesn’t win. Obviously, McMurray makes his second trip to the Chase if he wins. He’s also guaranteed a spot if Buescher drops out of the top 30 and one of the current 13 winners repeats or if Elliott or Dillon win as long as he finishes 21st with no laps led, 22nd and leads a lap or 23rd and leads the most laps.

In 27 Cup starts at RIR, McMurray has three top fives, 10 top 10s and an average finish of 20.1.

Ryan Newman 

He remains 14th in the Sprint Cup point standings despite his car failing the Laser Inspection Station at Darlington Speedway and being docked 15 points on Wednesday. Newman is currently 273 points ahead of 31st-place Ragan and can still clinch a Chase spot should he win at Richmond. However, if there is a new winner, Newman must score 22 more points than McMurray, 32 more points than Dillon and 40 more points than Elliott. With a repeat winner — or if Elliott, Dillon or McMurray wins and Buescher drops from the Top 30, Newman still needs 20 points to clinch (21st-place finish with no laps led, 22nd-place finish with one lap led or a 23rd-place finish with most laps led).

Newman has one win and one pole in 29 starts at RIR. He’s led 454 laps while posting six top-five and 16 top-10 finishes. Newman’s best career track average (11.7) is at Richmond.

Kasey Kahne 

He is currently 13th in the standings and 251 points ahead of Ragan. Kahne’s entry into the playoffs is assured with a win. He’ll transfer into the Chase if there is a repeat winner, a win by Elliott, Dillon or McMurray, Buescher slips out of the Top 30 and he finishes 22 points (or 23 depending on a tie-breaker) ahead of Ryan Newman.

Kahne won from the pole at Richmond in 2005. In 25 starts, he’s posted five top fives, nine top 10 and led 281 laps 

Win and you’re in:

Ryan Blaney (17th in the standings, 226 points ahead of 31st)

AJ Allmendinger (18th in the standings, 215 points ahead of 31st)

Trevor Bayne (19th in the standings 212 points ahead of 31st)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr (20th in the standings, 204 points ahead of 31st)

Greg Biffle (21st in the standings, 130 points ahead of 31st)

Paul Menard (22nd in the standings,132 points ahead of 31st)

Danica Patrick (23rd in the standings, 120 points ahead of 31st)

Aric Almirola (25th in the standings, 84 points ahead of 31st)

Clint Bowyer (26th in the standings, 80 points ahead of 31st)

Casey Mears (28th in the standings, 63 points ahead of 31st)

Landon Cassill (29th in the standings, 21 points ahead of 31st)

Win and move into the top 30:

David Ragan (31st in the standings, 11 points behind Buescher)

Regan Smith (32nd in the standings, 28 points behind Buescher) 

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