Season preview: Is Vinales really the MotoGP title favourite?
After switching to Yamaha, Maverick Vinales has lit up MotoGP winter testing in 2017 - but does that make him favourite for the championship? Our expert panel answers that, and several other key questions on the eve of the new season.
Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images
Is Vinales really the title favourite after such a strong pre-season?
Val Khorounzhiy, News Editor
Yamaha newcomer Maverick Vinales has made it so very difficult to take pre-season laptimes with a grain of salt, immediately getting to terms with his new bike and sweeping all four official tests – and rather comfortably, too.
Nobody can at this point doubt that he's now one of MotoGP's top dogs and a serious threat for the title, but the claim of Vinales being the favourite should elicit healthy scepticism. The idea that the Spaniard, however quick he was in testing, has leapfrogged the elite of the sport in one winter will take some selling.
At the same time, who is to carry the favourite tag if not Vinales? Neither Ducati, nor Suzuki look particularly ready to take on the Honda–Yamaha establishment week in, week out, which leaves a quartet of likely title challengers.
And while you never know with Valentino Rossi, who always seems to find a few tenths when it counts most, he and Dani Pedrosa appear to be the outsiders in their respective teams heading into 2017. That pits Vinales against the reigning champion.
Indeed, if Marc Marquez pulls off another magical title run despite his Honda bike's remaining weaknesses, nobody will be surprised. But his title rout of 2016 took a fair few unforced errors from the Yamaha camp, and his new rival Vinales hasn't made any of those for quite a while.
Can Rossi still be a force to be reckoned with?
Charles Bradley, Editor-in-chief
Valentino Rossi was MotoGP's white dwarf; a once-mighty star in its (career) death throes. He'd beamed brightest in the two-wheeled galaxy for over a decade – but it seemed his heavenly years were behind him, especially saddled with a Ducati. And then…
Returning to Yamaha, as he freely admits with his "tail between the legs", the old Rossi gradually re-emerged. Nine wins have since been added to his massive tally, now 88 in the premier class.
In 2015, Vale was back to his best. Fighting tooth and nail (and kick) – he could argue a moral victory, despite falling short by five points to Jorge Lorenzo after that controversial end to the season. Last year he pushed Marc Marquez hardest in points too, albeit with only two race wins – but it was an odd season, and one where Yamaha clearly failed to improve much during the season.
In astronomy, a star's light drastically diminishes when it fails to excite the gas surrounding out. In MotoGP, Rossi's plan is to excite his legion of fans for at least two more seasons. Does he have a title push in him this year? A lot will depend on how he reacts to having Maverick Vinales as teammate.
Testing form certainly suggests Yamaha's new star is about the outshine its old one – but there could be one 'big bang' left in Rossi yet.
What can Lorenzo achieve in year one on the Ducati?
Oriol Puidgemont, MotoGP Editor
It looks like Ducati has found out this pre-season that, in motorcycle racing, two plus two does not always equal four. They should have known that from the Rossi debacle of 2011-12, but no doubt it was reminded by Lorenzo's results during testing while riding the Desmosedici GP; a three-time MotoGP champion looking to return the Italian brand to the glory days of Casey Stoner.
Furthermore, neither Ducati nor Lorenzo seem to share the same opinion about how long it will take for Ducati to develop a true world championship winning machine. However, after the last official test of the pre-season in Qatar, Ducati technical director Gigi Dall'Igna has already said that the team is not yet ready to fight for its first title in a decade.
Lorenzo's arrival means a lot for Ducati, but the Spaniard is also a rider who can be tricky to deal with. He's as fast as he is scrupulous with details related to riding, and everything must be perfect for him to be able to make the most of the package.
After nine seasons on an easy-to-ride Yamaha, Lorenzo looked shocked at the beginning with the wild Italian prototype, but as the Spaniard spent longer on track, he has become better acquainted with his new steed - and has worked on refining his super-smooth style accordingly.
Lorenzo will probably win some races in his first season riding the Ducati, but it will be extremely difficult for the Spaniard to fight for the title, as both Marquez on the Honda and Vinales on the Yamaha look to be a major step ahead. He's even admitted that teammate Andrea Dovizioso, who earns a fraction of the salary of Ducati's new megastar, is likely to be ahead at first.
What can we expect of Iannone and Suzuki?
Mitchell Adam, Autosport International Editor
Forget Ducati ending a winless run that was approaching six years, Suzuki was the big improver in MotoGP in 2016. After showing signs of promise in its comeback season in 2015, mostly in qualifying, the Japanese manufacturer took a major step forward, aided by significant engine gains and adopting a seamless gearbox.
That gave Vinales - in particular, given Aleix Espargaro's struggles - a very sharp GSX-RR to use to take the fight to Yamaha, Honda and Ducati. He qualified on the front row in Qatar 12 months ago, just 0.095 seconds off pole, and should have claimed his maiden podium in the second race in Argentina if not for what was ultimately the only crash of Vinales' second campaign.
A breakthrough podium came at Le Mans, where he decided to accept Yamaha's offer to become Jorge Lorenzo's replacement. Vinales added three more podiums to his tally before the year was out, including Suzuki's first MotoGP win since 2007 at Silverstone, and leaves massive shoes to fill.
Andrea Iannone steps into those shoes, squeezed out of Ducati to accommodate Lorenzo. At his best, Iannone is blisteringly quick. At his worst, Iannone is on first name terms with the marshals.
If Davide Brivio can help tame MotoGP's enigma, it will lessen the loss of Vinales. The Italian has looked good in testing and qualifying on the front row in Qatar this weekend would not be a shock. Evolution has been the message from Suzuki this winter, and Iannone will hope it has made progress with the rear-grip issues that limited its potential in hot weather and the wet last year.
How close will we get to last year's record of nine race winners?
Jamie Klein, UK Editor
Michelin's return to MotoGP was responsible for much of the unpredictability fans were treated to last season, and so it follows that – with a year of data and experience behind it – the French firm's offerings will be a little more consistent this year. This could make for less variety, although the top three manufacturers are now sufficiently close that we should still see a fair number of winners.
Certainly, there are six riders – Marquez, Pedrosa, Rossi, Vinales, Lorenzo and Dovizioso – who have the equipment to win, and to that list we can probably add Cal Crutchlow, who clearly demonstrated in 2016 that he can mix it with the big boys on his privateer LCR Honda.
Likewise, Iannone, while erratic, is certainly capable of standing on the top step if the machinery allows. Marc VDS Honda rider Jack Miller is probably the only victor from last year who won't be disappointed to not win again.
Of the other privateers, Tech 3 Yamaha pair Jonas Folger and Johann Zarco have both gone well in testing, as has Aspar's Alvaro Bautista – although, as is the case with Miller, it would probably take a liberal dose of rain to give them any real chance of upsetting the established order. Danilo Petrucci, blessed with the latest GP17 Ducati, has also proven himself something of a wet-weather ace.
As for the two remaining manufacturers, their sights will be set a little lower. For Aprilia, the goal will be to build on a solid end to 2016 and continue to score regular top 10s. New kid on the block KTM, meanwhile, seems set to start the year at the rear of the pack, but will no doubt be hoping to be in the hunt for points finishes on merit in the latter half of the year.
In brief - Marc or Maverick?
Jamie Klein: Marquez isn't going to go down without a fight, and Honda is looking in better shape than it was this time a year ago. But it's quite possible that the three-time champion's more measured approach to 2016 might not be enough against Vinales. If he's having to push flat out all the time, the mistakes of 2015 could creep back into his game and open the door to his rival.
Top 5: Vinales, Marquez, Rossi, Pedrosa, Lorenzo
Val Khorounzhiy: As good as Marquez was on the Honda last year, Vinales has looked effortlessly fast since joining Yamaha - and he appears to be better than most at ensuring a finish.
Top 5: Vinales, Marquez, Rossi, Dovizioso, Pedrosa
Oriol Puigdemont: Vinales has been the man to beat in the preseason, but we haven't seen him fighting against the others on track. We know how strong Marquez is in that aspect, and we can't forget that the 2017 Honda seems to be more competitive than last year.
Top 5: Marquez, Vinales, Rossi, Pedrosa, Lorenzo
Lena Buffa (MotoGP Editor, France): Vinales has learnt his trade on the Suzuki, and is now ready to shine on one of the very best bikes of the field. Up to now his adaptation to the Yamaha has been absolutely perfect, although it remains to be seen how he will behave when he'll be under pressure and directly battling with the big names of the championship.
If this championship is as close as we expect, then besides pure performance the ability to make as few mistakes as possible will be key. After the winter tests, the advantage there goes to Vinales. What if Marquez, facing such a tough rival, goes back to his 2015 approach and makes a few of those decisive mistakes?
Top 5: Vinales, Marquez, Rossi, Dovizioso, Pedrosa
Matteo Nugnes (MotoGP Editor, Italy): Vinales was the star of the winter, but Marquez remains the favourite, because the Honda is better than one year ago and the Spaniard has blistering race pace. Will Vinales be able to bear the pressure?
Top 5: Marquez, Vinales, Lorenzo, Rossi, Pedrosa
Toni Boerner (MotoGP Editor, Germany): The reigning world champion had his character-building season in 2015, and has matured a lot since – as he showed last year with a title assault built on consistency instead of risk-taking.
Vinales may have been tipped for the title after his showings in testing, but the pre-season is the pre-season. He hasn't fought for the title since his final Moto3 campaign in 2013, and pressure in MotoGP is a different thing. Can he handle it?
Top 5: Marquez, Pedrosa, Vinales, Rossi, Lorenzo
Full championship predictions:
Pos. | Rider | JK | VK | CB | OP | MA | LB | MN | TB | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Marquez | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 76 |
2 | Vinales | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 75 |
3 | Rossi | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 62 |
4 |
Pedrosa |
7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 54 |
5 | Lorenzo | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
6 | Dovizioso | 5 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 39 |
7 | Iannone | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
29 |
|
8 | Crutchlow | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 29 |
9 | Folger | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | |||||
10 | Petrucci | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | |||
11 | Bautista | 2 | 2 | 4 | ||||||
12 | Zarco | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||||||
13 | A Espargaro | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |||||
14 | Rins | 2 | 2 | |||||||
15 | Redding | 1 | 1 |
Points awarded on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 basis
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