Why time has run out for F1 to save its Bahrain and Saudi races

An announcement on the likely cancellation of Formula 1's Bahrain and Saudi Arabian grands prix is expected within 48 hours

Following talks at last weekend's Australian Grand Prix, F1 had set itself a 10-day deadline to make a final call on the fate of April's Bahrain and Saudi Grands Prix, a timeline largely dictated by freight logistics to the Gulf as the US and Israeli war on Iran continues to engulf the region.

The two Arabian races are twinned to optimise F1's complicated logistics, so it would be difficult to pull off one but not the other - although it is understood there was some hope to somehow salvage the Jeddah round.

Some team and Pirelli freight is already in Bahrain as it never left after pre-season testing, but with the race scheduled for 12 April, it means the rest of the freight would have to start leaving imminently. Saving the Saudi race would also involve personnel being able to travel to Bahrain to move some of the freight across the border.

That deadline, immediately following this weekend's Chinese Grand Prix, is now looming and with no hope that F1 can meet it.

As it stands on Friday March 13

Lando Norris, McLaren, F1 Chinese GP

Photo by: Peter Fox / Getty Images

At the time of writing on Friday night, violence in the region has continued and even escalated. On Thursday Iran hit fuel and oil storage tanks in Bahrain, two weeks after attacking the US Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters in the Gulf state, just kilometres from downtown Manama and in close proximity to the airport.

International shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz has also been severely impacted, with reports of vessels being struck off the coast of the United Arab Emirates and the Iraqi port city Basra. Air traffic is also still heavily affected, with all flight operations at Bahrain International Airport currently suspended, although the Saudi airports of Jeddah and Riyadh are largely running as normal.

Why replacing Bahrain and Saudi Arabia was never going to make sense

Pierre Gasly, Alpine

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images

Losing both races from the 2026 calendar means there will be no F1 racing in April, opening up a six-week gap between the Japan and Miami rounds.

Initial reports suggested F1 could simply put on a couple of emergency replacements in Europe, as it impressively did during the COVID days. However, as previously reported here, that won't happen because it makes little logistical or commercial sense.

The first European round of 2026 is currently scheduled on 7 June, when F1 heads to the streets of Monaco. Adding last-minute races seven or eight weeks earlier at the likes of Portimao or Imola would cause a huge logistical headache for both F1, the FIA and whoever the local promoter would be.

The promoters would need to make emergency arrangements with local authorities and put together a skeleton crew to operate the circuit, with the demands of a present day F1 race taking most of the calendar year to plan.

Then there is the small matter of ticket sales, which would be problematic to organise and market at such short notice. Limited paying customers means there is little incentive for any promoter to cough up a sanctioning fee worth all the hassle.

While it is not known which arrangements F1 management has struck with the Bahraini and Saudi organisers, losing those two races - who pay hosting fees well north of 100m euros, combined - will inevitably be a financial blow, and would also hit the team's bottom line. But as McLaren CEO Zak Brown said in Australia: "I think given what's going on, we're not bothered if it does have a little bit of a financial impact."

But, as explained, that money would never be recouped by any short-term replacements anyway. Things would perhaps be different if the total number of 2026 races were to drop below 22, as that's the minimum number F1 has to put on to honour its television contracts. But even without Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, F1 will still hit that number this year.

And there is a lot more time for the series to consider the end-of-year races in Qatar and Abu Dhabi - as well as any contingency plans.

Speaking on Thursday, seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton said he had faith in F1 chief Stefano Domenicali to "do what's right for all of us".

It now very much looks like F1's hand will be forced anyway as the darkness in the Middle East keeps spreading.