Analysis

Analysis: Where Verstappen made the difference against McLaren in Japan qualifying

Max Verstappen clinched pole position at Suzuka for the fourth consecutive year - though this was the most unexpected of them all. Here's a dive into the GPS data to understand where the Red Bull driver gained the vital fractions of a second against the McLarens

Coming into Q3, McLaren had topped every session of the Japanese Grand Prix weekend – free practice, Q1, and Q2 – positioning the Woking-based team as the clear favourite for pole. Oscar Piastri led the way after the first runs in Q3, with Max Verstappen trailing by a quarter of a second.

"I just thought, 'I'm going to give it everything in that last run,'" Verstappen explained of his mindset going into the final minutes. "I knew it was quite a big gap — two and a half tenths on a track like this is a lot. But the McLarens didn't find much more pace and that worked in my favour."

Piastri had clocked a 1m27.052s on his first attempt and improved just 0.025s in the dying moments of Q3. Norris made a bigger gain – shaving off half a second – but the British driver also had to deliver after a messy start to the final part of qualifying.

Comparing the deciding Q3 laps: Verstappen vs Norris vs Piastri

When analysing the final Q3 laps, the differences in the data between Verstappen, Norris (+0.012s), and Piastri (+0.044s) are minimal. But the telemetry and GPS data reveal how the Red Bull driver edged out McLaren.

It started with higher straight-line speed going into the lap. Verstappen hit 325km/h at the end of the pit straight, while Norris and Piastri reached 320km/h and 319km/h respectively. It gave Verstappen an immediate edge — a tenth on Piastri and 0.061s on Norris — heading into Turn 1.

That margin increased as Piastri had to correct a little snap in Turn 2. "It wasn’t my best first sector, even a bit slower than my first run," the Australian admitted in the post-qualifying press conference.

Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, kwalificatievergelijking Japan, bocht 1

Foto door: F1-Tempo

Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, Japan kwalificatievergelijking, exit Esses

Foto door: F1-Tempo

The little mistake carried into the famous Esses, where Piastri’s deficit to Verstappen increased to 0.288s. Verstappen, meanwhile, only lost a fraction to Norris through this section, despite suffering from understeer during the quick changes of direction. "I still had a lot of understeer in sector one, so I couldn’t really attack the corners the way I wanted to," Verstappen told Dutch broadcaster Viaplay when analysing his pole lap. "But I made the most of it."

That understeer carried on through the section following the Esses. Watching the onboard footage, Verstappen commented: "You try to carry as much speed as possible into Turn 8, but I had understeer there as well. Turn 9 isn’t great for us in general, as our car is bouncing all over the place there."

By the time the leading trio reached the hairpin — the slowest corner on the Suzuka circuit — Norris had clawed back time. The McLaren car looked more planted through that part of the track, meaning Norris was 0.075s up on Verstappen’s eventual pole time.

Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, qualifying Japan, hairpin

Photo by: F1-Tempo

Heading into Spoon, Verstappen began to reclaim time again. This section is flat out and, just like on the main straight, the RB21’s superior top speed helped to close the gap. At the braking zone for Spoon, Norris was just 0.010s ahead – meaning both drivers were basically on level terms.

Here, a pattern that’s become familiar throughout the first race weekends of the season repeated itself: Norris lifts and brakes earlier than Verstappen, and gets on the throttle sooner. It gives Norris better exit speed from Spoon, which is crucial given the long flat-out section that follows through 130R up to the final chicane. On the overlay track map, that entire part is shaded in papaya, showing Norris was fastest there, taking advantage of his better exit.

Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, kwalificatievergelijking Japan

Foto door: F1-Tempo

Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, Japan kwalificatievergelijking, Spoon

Foto door: F1-Tempo

As they approached the final chicane, Norris held a significant lead — 0.185s over Verstappen, as shown in the data below. It led to the defining moment of the entire qualifying session at Suzuka. The telemetry shows that, once again, Norris lifted and braked earlier than Verstappen, who delayed his braking point considerably for his final shot at pole. As a result, Verstappen gained over two tenths in this final braking zone alone — just enough to retake the lead.

While Norris had a marginally better exit due to the earlier throttle application, it wasn’t enough this time. Despite braking extremely late, Verstappen managed to get a good enough exit to hold his advantage across the line, securing pole by 0.012s. Norris also opened his DRS fractionally later than Verstappen and Piastri, which didn't help him in the final sprint to the line.

"I knew there was a bit of time left in that final chicane," Verstappen said post-session. "On the previous run, I missed the first kerbstone on the inside, so I knew I could improve that section — and that was basically my lap."

Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, qualifying Japan, last chicane

Photo by: F1-Tempo

The data confirms that Verstappen has extracted everything out of the RB21 around Suzuka, or as he put it himself: "This lap was right on the limit, maybe even over the limit in some places. I think this circuit suits me well, which helps — but the car also needs to deliver of course."

Piastri, despite his early mistake, also delivered a remarkably strong lap. He managed to reduce the nearly three-tenth deficit to just 0.044s across the line, underlining McLaren’s overall pace.

The latter is also true when it comes to the race pace. Even Verstappen acknowledged that McLaren remains the benchmark for Sunday’s race: "This pole position doesn’t mean all our issues are suddenly solved. If it’s dry and if we get a straightforward race, then it’s going to be very tough to keep the McLarens behind. But at least we couldn’t have done any better today."