What recent F1 history reveals about the chances of Red Bull being caught in 2023

As Formula 1 heads into the second season of its ground effect aerodynamic regulations, one of the biggest questions on the lips of observers is whether Red Bull will be caught. But year two of new rule sets offers mixed encouragement to those hoping to knock the Milton Keynes team off its perch

The inconvenient truth is that usually one team steals an early march at the dawn of a new technical era for Formula 1. Rather than the regulatory reset creating a more tightly fought grid as the rule makers originally intended, wiping the slate clean too often paves the way for dominance.

Red Bull in 2022 was a case in point. Last year brought arguably the greatest shakeup in topflight history. In came ground effects in a bid to inspire closer racing. But once the Ferrari challenge spectacularly collapsed, the evolved and lighter RB18 with its supreme Honda powertrain-derived top speed virtually had it all its own way. Collecting both drivers' and teams' championship crowns courtesy of 17 grand prix victories was proof enough.

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Author Matt Kew

Matt Kew is Autosport's F1 Editor, a role he has held since March 2022 after stints covering Formula E, Extreme E and the British Touring Car Championship.

Matt joined Autosport in 2018 to work predominantly on the magazine, but his relentless quoting of Alan Partridge meant office colleagues soon thought he would be better suited to increased field work.

Needless to say, Matt had the last laugh when he won the Motorsport UK Young Journalist of the Year Award in 2019.

His interest in motorsport was sparked by regular trips to watch ASCAR crash around Rockingham's banked oval.

Matt read politics and philosophy at the University of Sheffield - receiving first-class honours for his dissertation assessing the lack of female participation in top-tier motor racing.

He covered a wide variety of national race and rally meetings for Autosport as a freelancer before joining full-time. His best efforts to argue the merits of historic racing is undone by a questionable taste in music and James Bond actors.