Shock Singapore GP win leaves Mercedes searching for answers

Toto Wolff says the current generation of Formula 1 cars being a “surprise box” means results like George Russell’s shock Singapore Grand Prix victory have become a feature of the era.

In the ground-effect era, Mercedes has arguably experienced more ups and downs than any other team in the paddock, with streaks of frustrating mediocrity punctuated by rare - yet often dominant - victories. But perhaps none were more surprising than Russell's second win of the campaign in Singapore, on a hot track that Mercedes would never have guessed was going to suit its W16 car.

"If I were to make a list of all the races I thought we could win at this year, this would probably be right at the bottom," Russell said after defeating Max Verstappen to pole and then controlling the race from start to finish. "So I think we need to sit down tomorrow and Tuesday to sort of understand why the performance was so good."

Where did Mercedes' convincing Singapore F1 form come from? "You tell me," team boss Toto Wolff replied. "That was never a nice place for us in terms of car performance. And if you would have told me that we were dominating in the way we did today, I would not have believed it."

In the race,  Mercedes was perhaps flattered by the circumstances and by track position, with Russell crucially holding onto the lead on mediums against Verstappen on softs. As Verstappen faded he then also held Lando Norris at bay, who appeared to be the quickest car on track. But Russell's pole and general weekend performance was nevertheless convincing.

There are some early signs that might help explain why Russell - and to a lesser degree his team-mate Andrea Kimi Antonelli who took fifth - were able to shine under the Marina Bay lights. While equatorial Singapore is a sweltering location to host a race, track temperatures during the nighttime race actually hovered around 33 tot 34 degrees - warm but not excessively so.

George Russell, Mercedes

Photo by: Simon Galloway / LAT Images via Getty Images

And while downforce levels are very high, with its lack of fast, long corners Singapore's 5km street loop doesn't put that much lateral load through the tyres, something Singapore has in common with Montreal, where Russell also won from pole.

A third element is Mercedes' competition relatively underperforming. Red Bull was certainly quick, setting it up for a strong finish to 2025 after its in-season turnaround, but it was equally surprised by its form on a circuit that isn't its strongest and will have been delighted with Verstappen finishing second. McLaren also found a circuit that doesn't accentuate its 2025 car's strengths, with Andrea Stella arguing that track-specific issues were compounded by rivals catching up in the development race. Ferrari, meanwhile, appears to have dropped out of the fight for race wins anywhere.

But Wolff's underlying argument is that the fine art of exploiting F1's outgoing generation of ultra-sensitive cars - and the Pirelli rubber they lean on - remains hard to master. Mercedes has often gotten it wrong, including this season on various occasions. This time its silver stars aligned.
 
"These cars are just a surprise box. If you ask McLaren why the last three races haven't gone at all, they would probably struggle for answers. And the same way, Max coming back and then lacking performance again today, and the same with the Ferraris oscillating between success and failure," he added.
 
"It's just that margins are so small in having the car in the right aerodynamic window, in extracting that maximum mechanical grip without killing the tyres, and the sweet spot of the Pirellis obviously. That doesn't always correlate what you see in the virtual world, in the simulations, to what happens on the track.
 
"But [in Singapore], from the get-go the tyres, driver and car were just in sync and not to be beaten."