McLaren tipped to emerge as Mercedes' main threat by end of 2026 F1 season

Former Alpine Formula 1 team principal Otmar Szafnauer believes McLaren will establish itself as Mercedes' main rival by the end of the 2026 season.

Speaking on the High Performance Racing podcast alongside broadcaster Jake Humphrey, Szafnauer assessed the shifting competitive order at the front of the grid following Lando Norris's back-to-back wins at the Hungarian and Dutch Grands Prix. 

McLaren has introduced major upgrades at recent grands prix. With the development package now fully integrated ahead of the Italian Grand Prix at Monza, the former team chief expects the Woking outfit to overtake Ferrari in the constructors' championship and become a threat to Mercedes.

"Monza will be very important because [McLaren] brought an upgrade that did work in Hungary. I think they continued with that upgrade from what I read in Zandvoort, and now the upgrade's complete. Let's see how they go in Monza," Szafnauer explained. 

"I still think they're going to be Mercedes' closest competitor at the end of the season. I said that at the beginning, but it seemed like it was Ferrari. And I think it's ebbing and flowing, the relative performance due to the fact that not all of the upgrades are coming at the same time, and the upgrades are significant.

"In a year where the regulations are new, you find a lot, right? So your learning curve is very steep. So when you bring that upgrade relative to those who haven't, you make a step. And I think we saw that with Alpine as well. After Racing Bulls had their upgrade, they were significantly quicker than Alpine. It looked like they were going to get them. And now they're there or thereabouts."

Lando Norris, McLaren

Photo by: Eric Le Galliot

Addressing why constructors' championship leader Mercedes has spaced out its upgrades rather than bringing new components more frequently, Szafnauer pointed to the cost cap. 

"Cost cap. They have upgrades now that they could bring, but once you start making those parts, it costs you, and they'll go over the cap," he said. "So what they're going to do, my guess is, one more upgrade, Malaysia/Singapore timeframe.

"That doesn't mean the learning stops. The learning continues in the background. You're still doing CFD work. You're still doing wind tunnel work. You're still making wind tunnel parts. All that's planned.

"It's just a question of when you stop to actually bring that upgrade package. And that's where the money is. When you make realised car parts, they cost: new wings, new floors, new bodywork. And I predict they'll have one more big upgrade as opposed to a lot of little ones because they can't afford it. They're at the cap."