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Can Max Verstappen mount a challenge to McLaren in the Spa-Francorchamps race? He doubts it, and rain may do nothing to help

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Formula 1 via Getty Images

Max Verstappen fears he won’t be able to threaten the dominant McLarens in Formula 1’s Belgian Grand Prix, with his Red Bull car expected to struggle – even more so in the rain.

Verstappen won Saturday's dry sprint race, having snatched the lead away from Oscar Piastri on the Kemmel Straight before making the most of his straightline speed to defend his advantage throughout the contest.

However, the Dutchman expects to struggle more over a full race distance – especially after he qualified fourth in a “not very good” Q3 performance, 0.341 seconds down on pole, behind Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc.

“I think we should be fighting for P3, realistically speaking,” Verstappen said. “In dry conditions, anyway.

“Rain can always cause a bit of chaos, but then McLaren normally has an even bigger advantage. So P3 is the highest achievable position. That was actually the case today in the sprint race, they just didn't manage to get past.”

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It has been raining near-continuously at Spa-Francorchamps since around 6am on Sunday morning, with the precipitation unlikely to relent enough for any dry track running today.

Verstappen’s main worry is Red Bull’s tendency to overheat – and consequently degrade – wet-weather rubber much more quickly than McLaren. This applies to the full-wet compound, which is seldom used, and intermediate tyres.

“The McLaren is even stronger in the wet than in the dry, because the overheating is even bigger of course on an intermediate, so they have that really well under control,” he insisted.

Oscar Piastri, McLaren, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Oscar Piastri, McLaren and Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, at Silverstone

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / LAT Images via Getty Images

“Every time we've driven in the rain, we haven't really had a chance. That won't suddenly change tomorrow.

“They are still miles ahead of us in terms of tyre management. I mean, if you have that, you're almost unbeatable.”

To compound Verstappen’s situation, Red Bull’s upgrades this weekend, albeit not ineffective, have seemingly failed to improve the RB21’s tricky behavior.

“I think they work, but it still doesn't give me the balance I want to really attack a corner,” he lamented. “Those problems remain the same.” Hence a suboptimal qualifying lap with “so much wheelspin” at the exit of Eau Rouge, and therefore some work still cut out for Red Bull’s engineers.

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Meanwhile, Verstappen’s main rival for the podium, Leclerc, wasn’t feeling too optimistic himself.

“I don't think [rain] is a strength for our car at the moment,” the Ferrari driver said. “We are really struggling.

“But, having said that, every weekend is different. We'll learn from the past and see what's possible tomorrow. I will only be able to tell after the first few laps to see where we are. But I'll try to look forward before looking in the mirrors.”

Additional reporting by Ronald Vording

Photos from Belgian GP - Race

Jacky Ickx, Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Rain in the pitlane

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Isack Hadjar, Racing Bulls Team

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Eliska Babickova, girlfriend of Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Jenson Button

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

George Russell, Mercedes

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Oliver Bearman, Haas F1 Team

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

A fan wears a headband made of LEGO F1 cars

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Lando Norris, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Toto Wolff, Mercedes

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls Team

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Oliver Bearman, Haas F1 Team

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Pierre Gasly, Alpine

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Toto Wolff, Mercedes

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls Team, Esteban Ocon, Haas F1 Team

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls Team, Esteban Ocon, Haas F1 Team

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Carlos Sainz, Williams

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing, Isack Hadjar, Racing Bulls Team

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

George Russell, Mercedes, Esteban Ocon, Haas F1 Team, Alexander Albon, Williams

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

View of the fanzone

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Fernando Alonso, Aston Martin Racing

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Nico Hulkenberg, Sauber

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Oliver Bearman, Haas F1 Team, Gabriel Bortoleto, Sauber

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing Team, Alexander Albon, Williams

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, Laurent Mekies, Red Bull Racing Team Principal

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Esteban Ocon, Haas F1 Team

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Isack Hadjar, Racing Bulls Team

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Lando Norris, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Frederic Vasseur, Ferrari, Charles Leclerc, Ferrari

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Isack Hadjar, Racing Bulls Team

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing, Laurent Mekies, Red Bull Racing Team Principal

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari, Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls Team

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls Team

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

George Russell, Mercedes

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Lando Norris, McLaren, Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

Oscar Piastri, McLaren

Belgian GP - Sunday, in photos

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