The bust and boom that will start Ferrari's second F1 millennium

For nine laps, it looked as if the Ferrari might have something almighty to celebrate in the Tuscan Grand Prix - the event it was marking as its 1000th world championship race. Once the real race had finally got underway after the first lap pile-up and safety car restart nonsense, Lewis Hamilton led Valtteri Bottas, with Charles Leclerc following in third. Charles Leclerc, in a Ferrari SF1000, in third on lap nine. That hasn't happened at any other point in the 2020 season thanks to the car's limitations. Leclerc had hauled it to stunning surprise podiums at the Red Bull Ring and Silverstone - but, on both occasions, he needed something unexpected to get him onto the rostrum. This time, he had capitalised on the start shenanigans after taking a shock fifth on the grid. He was helped by Esteban Ocon's late Q3 spin, sure, but that was still a great lap and achievement. For those glorious tours, the burgundy-coloured car held off the advances of Lance Stroll's Racing Point, with Leclerc running behind the dominant Mercedes machines. If the narrow Mugello track could keep the SF1000 in front, if DRS offered Stroll nothing, if Ferrari could ace its tyre strategy and Leclerc could hang on for 50 pummelling laps - a stunning result would be on. For Leclerc, read Alberto Ascari - second behind the car of the season, the Alfa Romeo 158, victorious in the hands of Juan Manuel Fangio at the 1950 Monaco GP, Ferrari's first world championship F1 race. But it wasn't to be. On lap 18 at Mugello, Stroll blasted by Leclerc on the outside line at San Donato - having used DRS and the might of his Mercedes engine. Then, lap after lap, car after car demoted the Monegasque driver until he pitted from seventh. It has long been known why the SF1000 is struggling in the midfield. It no longer has the power punch to push ahead of its rivals on the straights, and overcome the drag issues that come with downforce-chasing aerodynamic parts. Like McLaren before it, Ferrari is discovering that an engine focus has masked problems with other design areas. After all, Ferrari could not trouble the leaders at venues where power counts for less and downforce is king - such as the Hungaroring, Barcelona, and most of Mugello. Ferrari 1000th GP celebration atmosphere Photo by: Franco Nugnes This problem will continue into 2021 thanks to the coronavirus cost-saving measures, which mean the current cars will be carried over into next season. Yes, there are small chances to add upgrades and the cars will lose significant downforce with the floor changes - with that cut being extended on safety grounds after the British GP tyre failures. But, the core essence of each car will remain. Mercedes will have the all-conquering W11 (minus DAS), Red Bull the recalcitrant RB16, and Ferrari the underwhelming SF1000. There are apparently new bits coming for the next race, the Russian GP, but this won't change Ferrari's fortunes, says Mattia Binotto. "There will be small upgrades, but this will not change the big picture," he said after the race at Mugello. "I think we are at the moment out of pace in the race, and we are somehow wearing the tyres too much. The upgrades will not be the ones that address it. "On our side, we need to review the projects with the view of 2021. I think it will take some more time to do it." It is interesting to hear Binotto mention 2021, given it surely does not offer much hope for the Scuderia. The delayed rules reset should provide Ferrari with a chance to finally produce a car that can carry one of its drivers to a first world title since 2007. Right now, it looks like the immediate start of Ferrari's second F1 millennium will be painful - but there are reasons for it to look forward to a brighter future. For a start, it is committed to F1 as per the new Concorde Agreement, where it has retained its rules veto and a yearly payment - believed to be around $40m - in recognition of its historical contribution to the championship. Plus, it goes into the new era with further riches in terms of driving talent. Leclerc is already one of F1's megastars. Aside from his awful accident with Sebastian Vettel at the start of the Styrian GP, he has driven well in 2020. He ended up out of sync in terms of strategy last weekend as the SF1000 again ate through its tyres, but it was he who had hauled it to such great initial heights. For 2021 he will be joined by McLaren's Carlos Sainz. Sainz may have had a less than a stellar race at Mugello, but the previous week he was one of the two stars of the Italian GP - and would surely have taken a superb result even if the safety car/red flag sequence hadn't set off a chain of events that led to Hamilton's error, which dropped him from his usual perch (with a bit of added uncommon inadequacy from the Mercedes pitwall). Sainz will soon have to deal with the same troublesome car that has only allowed Leclerc to shine on occasion, but Monza showed just what he can do on his day. Even behind the F1 drivers on its books, Ferrari is blessed with driving talent. In Formula 2 alone in 2020, it has title contenders Mick Schumacher, who was given another captivating run in his father's F2004 last weekend, Callum Ilott and Robert Shwartzman (plus Marcus Armstrong and Giuliano Alesi). Rumours abound that Schumacher is set for a 2021 F1 seat - even if he doesn't win the F2 title. And Ferrari surely has the chance to flood F1 with its drivers, if it wishes. At Alfa Romeo, where Ferrari can choose who has the seat currently occupied by Antonio Giovinazzi, it is not too hard to imagine total change for next year. Giovinazzi has not set things alight as Leclerc did previously and even Kimi Raikkonen acknowledges he is closer to the end of his career than the start. So, it may make sense for Ferrari to place Schumacher there next season, with Alfa likely left with a choice of Raikkonen continuing, or one of the attractive candidates now on the market - including former drivers (as Sauber) Sergio Perez or Nico Hulkenberg. The other Ferrari customer squad, Haas, is also open to running two rookies if it decides to move on from Romain Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen. So, could it take a Ferrari junior or two? One plus Perez - who would bring backing to a squad that flirted with the exit before committing to the new Concorde - might be logical, especially if a deal could be agreed to lower the cost of the power units... Of course, none of this may come to pass but it serves to reinforce that, although Ferrari may be ending its first 1000-race F1 stint in some pain, there is plenty it will soon enjoy as it starts the journey of the next 1000.

Series	Formula 1
Teams	Scuderia Ferrari
Author	Alex Kalinauckas

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The bust and boom that will start Ferrari's second F1 millennium

Ferrari celebrated its Formula 1 history at the Tuscan Grand Prix, but its current car isn't going to add any more major achievements to that story. However, there is more than one reason why the future beyond the immediate looks good for the Scuderia.

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