Analysis

Analysis: Can Max Verstappen beat the McLaren pair in Singapore?

In a stop-start second practice at the Singapore GP, reading into the times requires caution. However, there appears to be positive signs for Max Verstappen in order to take on McLaren

Oscar Piastri set the fastest time on Friday practice in Singapore, a 1m30.714s, leaving even his closest world championship rivals behind: Lando Norris finished fifth (+0.483s), while Max Verstappen took third place (+0.143s). The small gap for Red Bull is particularly surprising, as Singapore has traditionally been considered a bogey track for Verstappen.

A detailed look at the long-run data, however, is rather limited. Second practice was interrupted first by an accident involving Mercedes driver George Russell and later by Liam Lawson hitting the wall, which resulted in an extended red flag phase. What remained were only truncated long-run attempts and a few data points with heavy fuel from the already unrepresentative first practice.

Has Verstappen shown his true pace here?

The direct comparison between Piastri and Verstappen was particularly interesting. Both drivers first set their personal best laps in the second free practice, before tagging on a long run without refuelling in the same stint. Piastri opened the long run with a 1m34.771s, while Verstappen was about three tenths slower (1m35.082s).

Ferrari and Mercedes not yet within striking distance

Everything therefore points to a duel between McLaren and Verstappen at the front. Ferrari and Mercedes, on the other hand, remained lacklustre. Lewis Hamilton had to abort his fastest lap in the second practice, but based on his best sector times he would have managed a 1m30.967s – good enough for fifth place and about two and a half tenths behind McLaren.

Like Red Bull, Ferrari is losing too much time particularly in the final sector. There is, however, some hope from a long run by Charles Leclerc in the first practice: adjusted for tyre compounds, he was on average about a tenth quicker than Verstappen. But since track conditions in FP1 were hardly representative, this figure should be treated with caution.

Surprises in the midfield: What can Aston Martin and Racing Bulls achieve?

The headlines on Friday therefore belonged more to the midfield teams. Fernando Alonso set the fastest time in FP1 with Aston Martin and later finished fourth. The team, however, did not complete any long runs in either FP1 or FP2, so nothing can be said yet about race pace. A look back at Zandvoort suggests that Aston Martin often appears stronger in practice than over the course of the full weekend.

Isack Hadjar also made waves: the Racing Bulls driver surprisingly clocked the second-fastest time. Yet the team’s long runs in FP1 were weak – Hadjar lost 1.33s per lap to Ferrari and was also behind Williams, Alpine and Haas. Nevertheless, the Racing Bulls is generally considered more of a qualifying car than a race car. In Singapore, where overtaking is notoriously difficult, that could prove decisive.

Increased pitlane speed: Door open for a two-stop strategy?

Despite the increase in pitlane speed from 60km/h to 80 km/h, little is expected to change in race strategy. The reason: Singapore’s well-known overtaking difficulties. A delta of more than one second per lap will likely be required to overtake successfully on Sunday.

Lando Norris, McLaren

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / LAT Images via Getty Images

Although the pitlane delta has been reduced from 29s to around 26s according to Friday’s findings, it still does little good if one loses positions and gets stuck in traffic. Tyre wear data from the first practice is also similar to last year’s. Accordingly, the one-stop strategy remains about four seconds quicker on paper than a two-stop race. Only a safety car could realistically make an additional stop viable.

Pirelli chief engineer Simone Berra also indicated low tyre degradation: "The track is providing a good level of grip, partly because the organisers have done a good job with high-pressure water jets and because several sections have been resurfaced, offering more grip than last year. At first glance all three compounds, including the soft, seem viable for the race."