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Analysis: Why Hungary is a crunch race for Ferrari

Sebastian Vettel may still be leading the Formula 1 championship standings right now, but he will be keenly aware that Ferrari is in need of a turnaround in fortunes if he is going to stay at the top much longer.

Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari SF70H

Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari SF70H

Sutton Images

In fact, this weekend's Hungarian Grand Prix will provide us with some key indicators about whether it is Mercedes rather than Ferrari that is now in the driving seat with regards to the fight for F1 glory.

A recent snapshot of form since the Monaco Grand Prix – which ultimately perhaps will come to be viewed as the turning point of the season – makes bad reading for Ferrari.

In the four races since its 1-2 on the streets of Monaco Carlo, the team has delivered 79 points – which is just two more than Red Bull has managed despite its reliability dramas. But more worrying is that in that period Mercedes has amassed 151 points.

What is hard to evaluate at the moment is what the real reasons are for why Mercedes has surged so much.

Have we just had a run of tracks – like Canada, Baku, Austria and Silverstone – that favour the more powerful and longer wheelbase Mercedes, where the shorter Ferrari SF70H cannot excel?

Have the last four races shown us the proof that the Mercedes W08 was always the quickest car but early season potential was hidden by its 'Diva' characteristics? And only after its Monaco woes did it work out how best to unlock it all?

Or have mid-season rules clarifications – a clampdown on oil burn from Baku and a requirement for Ferrari to strengthen its floor from Austria – hurt the Maranello team in particular?

After all, considering there were claims earlier this year that Ferrari's engine could now be more powerful than the Mercedes, it is noticeable that the situation, especially in Q3, has turned around so much since the oil burn ruling…

Picking out one of these three factors as the definite most important is a hard task right now, but Hungary should give us plenty of evidence about just where things are.

For the tight and twisty configuration, allied to the likely warmer temperatures that suit the SF70H better, is one that should perfectly suit the characteristics of the Ferrari over the Mercedes. It is also one where power is not so important.

So with things more evenly balanced between Mercedes and Ferrari, any signs that one has a clear edge over this weekend will have big implications for the remainder of the campaign – especially with Mercedes-suited tracks like Spa and Monza coming up after the summer break.

Ferrari knows that it is vital it strikes back in Budapest, but Mercedes equally is not getting too carried away – especially because in the current turbo hybrid era, it's been one win apiece for Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes at the Hungaroring.

Responding to the suggestion that Hamilton being a five-time winner there must mean Mercedes can target the title lead before the summer break, Wolff said: "He is driving great but you need to have a car that is capable of doing so.

"You remember Sochi when that didn't work out for him with just a general lack of grip, and very well for Valtteri. Monaco was a big setback.

"With these new regulations, it is not set in stone that it works like it has done so in the past. Going into the summer break with a lead is nice.

"There was a very famous Austrian skier who going into the Olympic Games always had the best sector times, was always sector world champion but never won the world championship.

"I would like to have the gap before the holiday but it doesn't mean anything for the world championship."

The Mercedes vs Ferrari development war

By Matt Somerfield

The Ferrari and Mercedes battle has raged all season, and the intensity of their battle has led to some pretty aggressive development pushes on both sides.

Here is a recap of what they have done so far. 

Mercedes, having introduced its nose mounted 'cape' solution in Spain, made a subtle change to the rear section in Austria.

The designers, seeking to optimise the surface, introduced a slot and upwardly turned the last inch or so of the surface in order the change the shape, velocity and direction of the airflow it expels.

The mirror stalks were also revised, moved from the side of the chassis and placed on top instead, with an arch shape used to retain the mirror's position.

Lastly, underneath the rear suspension wishbones a new winglet was mounted on the floor as the team looked to add a small portion of direct downforce but also improve the connection of the surrounding flow structures.

 

Ferrari SF70H front wing comparison
Ferrari SF70H front wing comparison

Photo by: Giorgio Piola

Ferrari, meanwhile, introduced an all-new front wing, complete with an all-new mainplane - introducing an arched profile at the juncture with the mandated neutral central section - as it looked to revise the shape, strength and position of the Y250 vortex, which is created when the pressure differentials created by the opposing surface geometries collide.

The mainplane is also devoid of the full-length slot introduced in Bahrain (highlighted in yellow), a revision that works in tandem with the aforementioned Y250 arch and a revision to the outboard arch which increases in size rearwards to create a sort of tunnel.

This tunnel displaces airflow across and around the front face of the tyre in order to reduce the drag being created by it and shape the wake it produces that can be damaging to surfaces downstream.

A new slotted canard (inset, upper right) could also be found hung from the endplate's inner surface, working in tandem with the cascade ahead and the curved canard already in place below and behind it.

 

This video highlights the numerous changes made by Ferrari to its front wing in Austria.

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