Stat analysis: Why Kyle Busch has Charlotte in his crosshairs
After a remarkable past year, Kyle Busch is now two tracks away from a full collection of Cup wins - and there's a good chance another venue will fall his way on Sunday.
Kyle Busch, Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Action Sports Photography
At the end of last year's campaign, season-deciding venue Homestead-Miami remained one of five tracks on the current NASCAR Sprint Cup schedule that Busch had yet to win at.
But he, of course, did finally win at Homestead when it mattered the most – and has since ticked off Martinsville and even Kansas, once firmly considered his 'bogey' track.
That leaves just two, and now that Jeff Gordon has retired, having come up one short (Kentucky), none of the Cup field's current drivers are closer to this milestone than Busch.
Not Jimmie Johnson, not Kevin Harvick and not even Tony Stewart, who himself has two tracks left to tick off but less than a season left in which to do so.
Current Cup drivers' wins at NASCAR's 23 tracks:
Driver | Age | Races* | Won at | Remaining |
Kyle Busch | 31 | 402 | 21 | CHA POC |
Tony Stewart | 45 | 583 | 21 | DAR KEN |
Jimmie Johnson | 40 | 514 | 19 | CHI HOM KEN GLN |
Kevin Harvick | 40 | 543 | 19 | TEX KEN POC SON |
Matt Kenseth | 44 | 580 | 18 | ATL IND MAR SON GLN |
Denny Hamlin | 35 | 374 | 15 | CHA DOV FON IND KEN LVS SON GLN |
Carl Edwards | 36 | 421 | 14 | CHI DAY IND KAN KEN LOU MAR TAL GLN |
Kurt Busch | 37 | 544 | 14 | CHI DAR DAY IND KAN KEN LVS TAL GLN |
Brad Keselowski | 32 | 245 | 12 | ATL DAR DAY TEX HOM IND MAR MCH PHO SON GLN |
Ryan Newman | 38 | 519 | 12 | ATL BRI CHA DAR FON HOM KEN LVS SON TAL GLN |
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. | 41 | 580 | 12 | CHA DAR FON HOM IND KAN KEN LVS LOU SON GLN |
Joey Logano | 26 | 267 | 11 | ATL CHI DAR DOV FON HOM IND KEN LVS MAR PHO SON |
Kasey Kahne | 36 | 443 | 11 | CHI DAR DAY DOV HOM INDI KAN KEN LVS MAR TAL GLN |
Greg Biffle | 46 | 482 | 10 | ATL BRI CHA CHI IND KEN LVS MAR PHO RCH SON TAL GLN |
Bobby Labonte | 52 | 696 | 10 | BRI CHI DAY FON TEX KAN KEN LVS LOU PHO RCH SON GLN |
* excluding at Rockingham and North Wilkesboro
Charlotte, which hosts a Cup race this weekend, is one of the two tracks on Busch's list and is also the track where he's made the most Cup starts – 24, none of them yielding a win.
And yet, the numbers suggest that it's entirely plausible, maybe even likely, that Busch will edge closer to the full collection in Sunday's Coca-Cola 600.
Charlotte Motor Speedway is not one of Busch's strongest tracks, not by any margin. However, the “0” in his Cup win column at the venue is a mild outlier, especially given just how many different winners the track has produced recently (eight in the past 10 races).
Of the Cup regulars winless at Charlotte, Busch has the most top-fives, the most top-10s and the most laps led. In fact, in terms of laps led, he is third-highest overall with a whopping 907, above two-time winner Matt Kenseth and three-time winner Harvick among others. He's led more than 10 laps in 11 of his Charlotte starts.
In Xfinity, Busch has eight Charlotte wins to his name (more only at Phoenix). In Trucks, he has six – more than anywhere else.
Back to Cup, it's worth noting that Busch came very, very close to winning Charlotte's other race – the Bank of America 500 - in 2010, only to be passed on a late restart by Jamie McMurray and in 2011, only to be passed on a late restart by Kenseth.
As for the Coca-Cola 600, there is that 2009 race where he led 173 laps of the 227 that took place before the race was called due to adverse rain conditions – with the Victory Lane ticket instead going to first-time winner David Reutimann.
All of that, of course, doesn't mean that some nebulous law of averages will kick in on Sunday, awarding Busch a first Charlotte win. But it does at the very least mean he's a genuine contender, especially in 2016.
For not only is Joe Gibbs Racing super strong this year, but the results from the tracks most similar to Charlotte – fellow 1.5-milers Atlanta and Texas – are encouraging. At Atlanta, Busch took pole, started at the back after failing inspection and went on to finish third. And Texas? There, he won.
The opposition
So who are the drivers most likely to stand in Busch's way? As usual, career stats suggest it's Jimmie Johnson, who has a field-best seven wins at the track, including four in a row during 2004 and 2005.
But while Johnson's most recent win in the Coca-Cola 600 was only two years ago, it was a highlight of a rather bad five-year stint at Charlotte for the six-time champion, who only has three top-10 finishes from the last 10 races at the venue.
Still, he did win at Atlanta and, if he gets a clean run together, he should be in the mix.
Sprint Cup active drivers' Charlotte records (ranked by five-year finishing average):
Pos | Driver | Overall | Past 5 yrs | |||||||
Wins | T5 | T10 | Pole | Led | AvgStr | AvgFin | AvgSt | AvgFn | ||
1 | Kevin Harvick | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 322 | 16.9 | 15.1 | 12.1 | 5.2 |
2 | Carl Edwards | 1 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 137 | 16.5 | 10.5 | 12.4 | 7.5 |
3 | Denny Hamlin | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 240 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 7.9 |
4 | Joey Logano | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 247 | 13.2 | 9.6 | 13.9 | 10.0 |
5 | Kasey Kahne | 4 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 1106 | 11.5 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 11.8 |
6 | Matt Kenseth | 2 | 10 | 17 | 2 | 699 | 16.3 | 14.2 | 10.7 | 12.5 |
7 | Kyle Busch | 0 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 907 | 13.1 | 15.1 | 11.5 | 13.0 |
8 | Austin Dillon | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 19.2 | 13.0 | 19.2 | 13.0 |
9 | Brad Keselowski | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 217 | 17.5 | 14.5 | 15.2 | 13.0 |
10 | Ryan Newman | 0 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 277 | 8.6 | 18.0 | 13.0 | 13.2 |
12 | Kurt Busch | 1 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 623 | 19.8 | 18.6 | 18.0 | 14.8 |
13 | Greg Biffle | 0 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 437 | 16.2 | 16.9 | 7.9 | 14.8 |
14 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 140 | 18.6 | 17.1 | 15.0 | 14.9 |
17 | Tony Stewart | 1 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 701 | 16.2 | 14.5 | 19.0 | 16.8 |
18 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. | 0 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 360 | 15.2 | 19.2 | 12.8 | 17.3 |
19 | Jamie McMurray | 2 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 279 | 22.8 | 16.5 | 25.3 | 17.9 |
26 | Jimmie Johnson | 7 | 13 | 17 | 4 | 1735 | 7.8 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 19.9 |
29 | Kyle Larson | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 22.0 | 21.4 | 22 | 21.4 |
The clear new star of Charlotte, however, is Kevin Harvick, the only repeat winner at Charlotte since 2011. None of his three Charlotte wins were truly dominant, but he's been a model of consistency at the track, making the top 10 in all but one of the past 10 races.
Among Busch's own teammates, Kenseth will almost certainly be in the mix, having led more than a 100 laps in last year's two Charlotte races, even if last year's Bank of America 500 was more or less the beginning of the end for his Chase campaign.
The victory chances of other squadmates Edwards and Kenseth seem a little bit more dubious, although by no means non-existent. Edwards' first win with JGR did arrive at Charlotte last year, but it was fuel mileage – and while his average finish is great, he's not led a lot of laps at the track.
And while Hamlin, like Harvick, has been a genuine shoo-in for a top 10 at Charlotte since 2011, he's yet to win here.
New additions to the Chase field?
But given Charlotte's tendency to throw up different winners, it's also entirely possible that another Chase ticket will be punched on Sunday, two weeks on from Kenseth's Dover win.
From the pack of those yet to win in 2016, there's two main candidates for the Coca-Cola 600 – Joey Logano and Kasey Kahne.
Notable five-year driver rating averages:
Driver | Charlotte | Other tracks | Difference |
Kevin Harvick | 109.1 | 101.0 | +8.1 |
Denny Hamlin | 106.5 | 90.9 | +15.5 |
Kyle Busch | 103.6 | 100.3 | +3.4 |
Matt Kenseth | 102.7 | 100.2 | +2.5 |
Jimmie Johnson | 102.1 | 103.5 | -1.5 |
Kasey Kahne | 99.6 | 90.0 | +9.5 |
Carl Edwards | 98.6 | 90.4 | +8.2 |
Brad Keselowski | 94.2 | 97.3 | -3.1 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 90.3 | 94.7 | -4.4 |
Kurt Busch | 90.3 | 89.4 | +0.8 |
Joey Logano | 90.0 | 91.8 | -1.9 |
Martin Truex Jr. | 89.3 | 88.1 | +1.2 |
Austin Dillon | 85.3 | 70.7 | +14.6 |
Ryan Newman | 81.7 | 84.0 | -2.3 |
Tony Stewart | 78.0 | 80.8 | -2.7 |
Kahne, winless since Atlanta in 2014, is very, very good at Charlotte, a track which has given him the most wins, top 5s, top 10s and laps led than any other track on the NASCAR schedule.
The worrying part is that he's not led a single lap at Charlotte since 2013, but, if there are early signs of a turnaround this weekend, Hendrick Motorsport would do well to focus on what could very well be Kahne's best chance of locking himself into the Chase.
Logano's Charlotte record, meanwhile, could have been described as “solid as unspectacular” heading into last year's Bank of America 500, a race he killed dead by leading 227 laps of the 334 on his way to the win.
Aside from the above duo, Martin Truex Jr. might be in with a shout, given that he's run very well this season and that Charlotte is more or less an average track for him.
Finally, as an outside shot for a career-first win, it is perhaps worth mentioning Austin Dillon, who not only has great Cup numbers at Charlotte in what is admittedly a very small sample size, but also won both Xfinity races at the track last year.
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