All drivers with victories have already locked themselves into the Chase.
Going into the penultimate race of the regular season, there are some very nervous drivers. Kasey Kahne, Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Ryan Newman, Austin Dillon, and Kyle Larson are all pushing and shoving each other as they try to secure a place into NASCAR's post-season.
The 12 drivers that have won a race this season are mathematically locked in. All the focus is now on the drivers who have yet to reach Victory Lane in 2014. With the win-and-you're-in policy now in place, it's not nearly as simple to predict. Technically, everyone from Matt Kenseth in fifth to the guys such as David Ragan and Cole Whitt in the 30's have some kind of shot.
Kenseth is in the best position of anyone, a massive 83 points ahead of the cut-off. It would take some catastrophic circumstances to throw him back down into the danger zone. A seventh place finish and he's in. Ryan Newman is 42 points to the good; also a fairly comfortable margin.
Things get interesting once you move down to Clint Bowyer however. He and Greg Biffle have a decent gap over rookie Kyle Larson, but any kind of fumble will change everything.
If we get a repeat winner this weekend, the top three winless drivers are locked in as long as they are at least a full race's worth of point ahead of those chasing them.
If there is a new winner, it then becomes two winless drivers who can mathematically lock themselves in.