This Sunday is Bristol Food City 500 (March 18 at 12:30 pm EST).

This half-mile oval track isn't as fast as the others. The average speed for the past 10 years was 85 mph. Only Martinsville and Sonoma are slower.

In recent years, Kyle Busch has dominated this track. He has won 3 of the last 5. As a result, published odds are indicating a win probability of 11.3% for Busch. This seems excessive in my mind. Jimmie Johnson is next with 8.5% win probability. Dale Jr. at 2.6% seems low -- he has been racing well.

The full list of win probability estimates are shown below.

Bristol Motor Speedway ambiance
Bristol Motor Speedway ambiance

Photo by: Motorsport.com / ASP Inc.

Driver (Win %)
Kyle Busch (11.3%)
Jimmie Johnson (8.5%)
Carl Edwards (7.5%)
Tony Stewart (7.5%)
Jeff Gordon (6.2%)
Kevin Harvick (6.2%)
Matt Kenseth (5.2%)
Kasey Kahne (5.2%)
Denny Hamlin (5.2%)
Greg Biffle (5.2%)
Brad Keselowski (4.2%)
Dale Earnhardt Jr (2.6%)
Martin Truex Jr (2.6%)
Ryan Newman (2.6%)
Clint Bowyer (2.6%)
Kurt Busch (2.2%)
Jamie McMurray (2.2%)
Jeff Burton (1.7%)
Juan Pablo Montoya (1.7%)
Joey Logano (1.3%)
AJ Allmendinger (1.3%)
Marcos Ambrose (1.1%)
Paul Menard (1.1%)
Brendan Gaughan (0.7%)
Bobby Labonte (0.7%)
David Ragan (0.7%)
Aric Almirola (0.7%)
Brian Vickers (0.7%)
Regan Smith (0.7%)
Other Drivers (0.7%)