Analysis: Why Jeff Gordon's Indy record makes him the perfect sub
Jeff Gordon is an inspired choice to drive HMS' #88 car at Indianapolis in place of Dale Earnhardt Jr., but can he spearhead Chevrolet's assault at, statistically speaking, one of its best tracks?
Race winner Jeff Gordon, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
NASCAR Media
When all the hype and excitement about Gordon's return to the Sprint Cup settles down, some might question the exact reason behind a 44-year-old driver with a back injury coming out of retirement to sub for Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Taking into account the non-sporting benefits of the decision – for the sake of the sport and the sponsors – Hendrick Motorsports can't be faulted for picking the one available sub who could rival Earnhardt Jr.'s popularity and appeal.
And yet, even from a purely sporting outlook, there's very little to complain about regarding the team's choice for the #88 car.
First and foremost, each and every major category in the Brickyard 400 record books is headed by Gordon – wins (5), pole positions (3), top-5 finishes (12), top-10 finishes (17), laps led (528). In the latter three, nobody else is even close.
Part of that is due to Gordon's status as the only Cup driver to have run in every Brickyard 400 so far – he won the first race in 1994, he won the 21st race in 2014, and 2016 will mark the 23rd race and his 23rd appearance.
But even when accounting for the number of starts, he's first or second in almost every ranking.
Brickyard 400 records (for drivers with >4 starts, ranked proportionally)
Avg. Fin | Top 5 | Top 10 | |||
Tony Stewart | 9.6 | Jeff Gordon | 12/22 | Kyle Busch | 9/11 |
Kyle Busch | 9.7 | Matt Kenseth | 7/16 | Jeff Gordon | 17/22 |
Jeff Gordon | 9.9 | Dale Earnhardt Sr. | 3/7 | Rusty Wallace | 9/12 |
Kevin Harvick | 10.2 | Rusty Wallace | 5/12 | Dale Earnhardt Sr. | 5/7 |
Rusty Wallace | 10.2 | Tony Stewart | 7/17 | Tony Stewart | 11/17 |
Wins | Laps Led/Run | Poles | |||
Jimmie Johnson | 4/14 | J. P. Montoya | 0.17 | Ernie Irvan | 2/5 |
Jeff Gordon | 5/22 | Jeff Gordon | 0.16 | Reed Sorenson | 1/6 |
Dale Jarrett | 2/13 | Jimmie Johnson | 0.15 | Rick Mast | 1/7 |
Dale Earnhardt Sr. | 1/7 | Ernie Irvan | 0.14 | Jeff Gordon | 3/22 |
Tony Stewart | 2/17 | Dale Jarrett | 0.09 | Kevin Harvick | 2/15 |
Whether Gordon is the greatest Brickyard 400 driver in the event's history so far is a complex question for another time (most drivers simply do not have a comparable amount of Indianapolis starts in top-line machinery), but he's as capable a pair of hands as Hendrick could have gotten.
That 17 top-10s is especially encouraging, making for a rate of 77 percentage points – a 17-point increase on Gordon's career top-10 rate at all tracks. Considering that the #88 car is still in a decent position to make the Chase in the owners' standings, hiring this reliable a driver could prove crucial.
But can he win?
Immediately as Gordon's return was confirmed, some have suggested the #88 looked good for victory at the Brickyard.
That is not impossible, of course – among the more recent examples, Kyle Busch's 2015 title and Tony Stewart's Sonoma win proved as much. But it sure is unlikely.
Set aside for a second that this is a very different kind of return – an unplanned comeback, which Gordon will have had very little time to prepare for. Set aside also that the #88 team has not been terribly close to winning for most of 2016.
The four-time champion can make up for those hurdles. But he'll also have to get around the fact that, in the final decade of his career, there were stronger Brickyard drivers in the field.
Since 2006, the Brickyard 400 has produced seven different winners – and only one driver won more than once.
Best Brickyard 400 performances since 2006 (by driver rating)
Year | Driver | Team | Car | Laps Led | Fin. | Rating |
2012 | Jimmie Johnson | Hendrick | Chevrolet | 99/160 | 1st | 150.0 |
2008 | Jimmie Johnson | Hendrick | Chevrolet | 71/160 | 1st | 147.3 |
2007 | Tony Stewart | Gibbs | Chevrolet | 65/160 | 1st | 146.0 |
2014 | Jeff Gordon | Hendrick | Chevrolet | 40/160 | 1st | 138.4 |
2013 | Jimmie Johnson | Hendrick | Chevrolet | 73/160 | 2nd | 138.3 |
2011 | Jeff Gordon | Hendrick | Chevrolet | 36/160 | 2nd | 136.0 |
2015 | Kevin Harvick | Stewart-Haas | Chevrolet | 75/164 | 3rd | 135.5 |
2013 | Ryan Newman | Stewart-Haas | Chevrolet | 45/160 | 1st | 134.2 |
2014 | Kasey Kahne | Hendrick | Chevrolet | 70/160 | 6th | 132.7 |
2010 | Greg Biffle | Roush | Ford | 38/160 | 3rd | 132.5 |
Yes, Jimmie Johnson's recent form has been pretty disastrous. And, yes, the #48 crew tends to oscillate between “victory contention” and “complete anonimity” at the Brickyard.
But four wins (and it would have been five if not for a slow final pitstop in 2013) is nothing to scoff at.
Kevin Harvick is also likely to be a major obstacle – he led almost half the race last year, only to come up short on a restart.
Finally, Tony Stewart is a clear standout – he's on a rich run of form and is easily one of the all-time series' top performers at Indianapolis.
Chevrolet's rivals
Having Gordon, Johnson, Harvick and Stewart in its ranks contributed to Chevrolet's mammoth 12-year winning streak at Indianapolis between 2003 and 2014 – and, fittingly, it was arguably the other manufacturers' best Brickyard driver that ended the run last year.
Kyle Busch didn't often look a contender for victory in Indianapolis prior to that race, but he was always stunningly consistent – with a better rate of top-10 finishes than even Gordon.
Busch is the only driver of the Gibbs' quartet with a Brickyard win and, if Toyota is to get a (seemingly unlikely) second consecutive win, it'll probably come from him, although Matt Kenseth's recent Indianapolis form has also been notable.
Ford likewise has two main contenders, in last year's runner-up Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski, whose lack of serious Indianapolis pedigree could be negated by just how good he's been at all superspeedways this year.
Notable five-year driver rating averages
Driver | Indianapolis | Other tracks | Diff. | Indy Max. | Indy Min. |
Kasey Kahne | 105.3 | 90.1 | +15.1 | 132.7 | 70.5 |
Tony Stewart | 91.6 | 80.3 | +11.4 | 114.6 | 81.7 |
Jimmie Johnson | 114.2 | 103.1 | +11.1 | 150.0 | 91.1 |
Kyle Busch | 110.5 | 100.2 | +10.3 | 131.3 | 85.7 |
Ryan Newman | 93.4 | 83.6 | +9.8 | 134.2 | 73.7 |
Jeff Gordon | 106.8 | 97.7 | +9.1 | 138.4 | 37.8 |
Matt Kenseth | 102.2 | 100.3 | +1.9 | 119.1 | 82.5 |
Denny Hamlin | 93.6 | 91.8 | +1.9 | 113.0 | 72.0 |
Joey Logano | 92.3 | 91.7 | +0.6 | 117.9 | 61.5 |
Greg Biffle | 81.5 | 82.9 | -1.4 | 117.4 | 62.8 |
Dale Earnhardt, Jr, | 91.9 | 94.5 | -2.6 | 107.5 | 77.7 |
Kevin Harvick | 98.4 | 101.6 | -3.2 | 135.5 | 77.1 |
Carl Edwards | 85.7 | 91.0 | -5.3 | 116.5 | 54.1 |
Brad Keselowski | 92.0 | 97.3 | -5.3 | 102.8 | 81.7 |
Martin Truex, Jr, | 82.4 | 88.4 | -6.0 | 103.5 | 61.7 |
Kurt Busch | 80.9 | 89.7 | -8.8 | 96.5 | 67.3 |
New Chase additions?
Chevrolet's not had the best of years in the Cup but its form at Pocono earlier in the year – coupled with a sublime track record at Indianapolis – means that the drivers it has on the Chase bubble are likely to have an edge over their Toyota and Ford rivals.
Three of Chevy's still-active Brickyard winners are still winless in 2016 – but while Jamie McMurray and Paul Menard's average scores at Indianapolis hardly stand out, Ryan Newman's definitely do.
The #31 crew is looking to cruise into the Chase on consistency and Indianapolis promises a very good points day for local driver Newman.
But Hendrick's Chase Elliott and Kasey Kahne are probably likelier contenders for a first win of 2016.
Elliott ran very well at Pocono – and is part of a team that has a spectacular Indianapolis track record – while Kahne had a number of strong Brickyard runs in the past, including when he led half the race in 2014.
Simply put, this is a race HMS really should win – preferably with one of its drivers that aren't yet locked in – and, given Earnhardt's situation, it's certainly a race the team cannot afford to do poorly in.
If Gordon could do it, another chapter to his legend would surely be created.
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