Analysis: Five Chase drivers who need to rebound at Kansas

Sunday’s Bank of America 500 left five playoff teams exceedingly vulnerable with two races remaining to decide who makes the Round of 8.

Since NASCAR changed the Chase format in 2014, never have five challengers ended up in the garage before the end of a Chase race. When Kansas Speedway was the middle race in the Round of 12 two years ago, Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr., were all involved in accidents throughout the event. But the trio of title contenders finished the event.

At Charlotte, only Joey Logano was able to return to competition after two tires failed and sent him headlong into the outside wall. After losing 78 laps in the garage for repairs, the No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Ford limped around the track for 137 laps with a damaged suspension. Fellow perennial Chasers Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin, both who had led laps in the race, were sidelined with engine failures. Chase rookies Chase Elliott and Austin Dillon were wrecked beyond repair during a late restart.

So which driver has the best opportunity for a Kansas Speedway comeback?

Joey Logano

Logano has won the last two Chase races at Kansas Speedway. Last year, he swept the Round of 12. Since joining Team Penske in 2013, Logano has led 292 laps on the 1.5-mile track. He has five top-five finishes in his last six starts. Although Logano has only won one race this season, his qualifying average is the third best on the tour. Reliability with the No. 22 Ford’s equipment has not been an issue for Logano this season. His three DNF’s stem from crashes. Logano is currently 11th in the standings, six points behind the cut-off.

Kevin Harvick

Before Logano’s winning streak began in the fall Kansas race, Harvick was the last driver to win this race — and he did so from the pole. That was his first of three poles at Kansas. In his last six starts at the track, Harvick has led 392 of the 475 laps led over his career. In 21 starts, he’s completed 98 percent of laps raced at Kansas and has posted five top fives and 10 top-10 finishes. In the first four Chase races, Harvick’s average finish is 24th. But the Closer always finds a way to deliver when pressure the pressure is on.

Denny Hamlin

Hamlin also has a win at Kansas but recently has been the least consistent of the regular Chasers. He's experienced two DNFs in the last three races but finished second in this event last year. In 16 starts, he’s posted four top fives, five top 10s and led 68 laps. His average qualifying effort at Kansas is 13.9. His average finish is 16.8. Hamlin, who is eighth in the standings, has the smaIlest deficit to overcome. He’s 33 points behind Jimmie Johnson and has a three-point cushion over Austin Dillon and Chase Elliott. In 2016, Hamlin has experienced four DNFs, but Sunday’s engine failure was the first that stemmed from a mechanical issue.

Chase Elliott

Elliott has just one Cup start at Kansas. The good news is he finished ninth and completed every lap. Certainly, Elliott’s Hendrick Motorsports team is a huge asset to the rookie driver when it comes to competing in the Chase and at Kansas, where former No. 24 driver Jeff Gordon won three times — as recently as 2014. Gordon failed to qualify for the Chase just once sine the program was introduced in 2004. In eight starts on intermediate tracks, Elliott has posted two top fives and five top 10 finishes. His accident at Charlotte last weekend was the Cup freshman’s second of the season. Elliott is currently 10th in the standings. He and Dillon both trail Johnson by 36 points. More germane to the Round of 8 discussion, they trail eighth-place Hamlin by three.

Austin Dillon

Like Elliott, Dillon is making his Chase debut this season. And like Elliott, Dillon has yet to win on the Sprint Cup circuit. Unlike Elliott, Dillon does not have a six-time champions such as Jimmie Johnson to rely on for advice. Dillon’s consistency in the No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet earned him a Chase berth this season. In fact, he was never outside of the top 14 in the standings. However, an average finish of 15th won’t get a driver far in the Chase. Dillon has six starts at Kansas. His best result of sixth there came at the 1.5-mile track in May from the 17th starting spot. Last year in this race, Dillon finished a career-low of 41st. With only 40 drivers now in the field, he won’t have to worry about repeating that feat. On the other hand, he'll probably need a career-best run on Sunday to stay competitive in the Chase--especially if another member of Charlotte's unfortunate five happens to pull off a win.