Analysis: Is Alonso's dream of a third F1 title realistic?

In January 2007, Fernando Alonso was just starting an exciting new relationship with a resurgent McLaren team, and at 25, the two-time world champion had the world at his feet.

With Michael Schumacher having retired at the end of the previous year, Alonso looked set to take over the mantle of being the man to beat, with only Kimi Raikkonen – Schumacher's successor at Ferrari – looking likely to challenge him for the position of top dog.

He remains one of the biggest players in the sport, but over the past decade Lewis Hamilton, Sebastian Vettel, Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen have emerged as fellow superstars of the sport, not forgetting Nico Rosberg, who won the title and promptly retired, as has Jenson Button, the other man to clinch the crown in the past decade.

Alonso, meanwhile, is still seeking that third world championship. He's come agonisingly close on three occasions, and it's extraordinary to think that just a few points here and there could have turned him onto a five-time champion.

"In 2007 it was one, and then with Vettel it was three [in 2012], and four [in 2010]," he recalls with a smile. "I know these figures because sometimes I need to answer. To be more times world champion would be nice..."

So can he still win again, either with McLaren-Honda or – further down the line – with somebody else?

A Mercedes future?

In theory a Mercedes seat is still available for 2018. While Alonso is obviously a candidate, logic suggests that – for reasons of nationality and past relationships – Vettel is the Stuttgart board's number one target as a potential teammate for Hamilton.

If Alonso doesn't go to Mercedes, then his options of finding a better seat than the one he currently has would appear to be limited – which means his future could lie with McLaren beyond the end of 2017.

If that's the case, can he realistically target a championship?

"I don't know, let's see. Obviously I would like to win the championship, but I can't start every year of my career with my only objective and only target to win the championship, because sometimes you finish second, sometimes you finish fifth, sometimes you finish eighth, and there is the feeling that how you can cope with this frustration, and this pain?

"And there is absolutely no pain. I have the best job in the world, I am driving at the best level that I was in my career.

"So I will start the year with a lot of hopes, of this project finally becoming competitive, and hopefully fight for some big things. But we'll see. Every driver dreams to be champion. Me, it's no different.

"I've been lucky enough to fight for many, many championships and to have great results, but I have no different dreams or different goals to anyone in the paddock."

There's no question that McLaren built up some momentum in 2016, and with a change of philosophy at Honda – now pursuing the split turbine and compressor layout used by Mercedes – there is genuine potential for a major step forward, rather than just a general assumption that things will come together.

How much the team can progress relative to the opposition is anybody's guess. Meanwhile, there are big changes in the management structure, with Ron Dennis no longer involved.

He's had a tough two years, but Alonso remains committed to the cause.

"I joined McLaren not because of Ron, I joined McLaren because the project felt very attractive in 2015. This McLaren-Honda partnership was one of the partnerships that I grew up with, watching on television.

"My first go-kart was a McLaren replica that my father made for me, so there were many things of this McLaren-Honda partnership that felt very attractive.

"I think it was the time to join this project, fully motivated. I knew that it was a risky move in terms of results, because the project was very new, as we saw in 2014 unfortunately. We are improving but a long way off to fight for the championship. But I think I'm in the right place to do so."

Happy with progress

McLaren and Honda, much like Alonso's previous team Ferrari, were caught out by the strength of the Mercedes hybrid package, which from the off was so much better than anything else. Rivals have been playing catch-up since then, and Alonso remains confident that the gap is closing.

"Mercedes at the moment is doing an incredible job. With these new turbo engines they were ahead of everyone else, they started years ago, and the advantage they had in 2014 when the turbo engines came was like one second. In 2015 it was half a second, now it's three tenths.

"They are losing that advantage, but they are living from that first year, which was fantastic. It's a moment to hope for 2017 with the change of regulations, everyone is starting from zero a little bit.

"Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, but Ferrari will always be a contender, as I think McLaren-Honda will always be a contender, because they are two manufacturers that they make for racing, for F1, and they are big companies, so you can expect some other teams they are up and down.

"Force India is doing a very good job one year, one year not. But Ferrari, McLaren-Honda, Mercedes, Red Bull, they will always be a contender."

The inevitable question is should Alonso have stayed at Ferrari? Given that Vettel won three races in 2015 the answer seemed pretty clear at that stage, but the Maranello team struggled badly last year, and Alonso could be forgiven for allowing himself a wry smile.

He twice came close to winning the title with Ferrari, but Vettel has been miles away, and he's always keen to point out that the Italian team's overall form has been worse since his departure.

"We fought until the last race… I think also [in 2016] they have been faster than the results look, in some races they were close to Mercedes and always something happened at the start, or mechanical problem, or a puncture, they've been unlucky sometimes.

"In 2012 it was probably the opposite. We were not very fast, but everything was coming around us. They blew up the engine, they had a penalty, they had pit stop problems, we were winning races that we should not win that year. So, we were also in a good mood.

"I only experienced one year with Kimi, so I don't have a straight comparison with the drivers that are racing at the moment. I don't think anyone can beat Mercedes unfortunately because they have a big advantage.

"I had five fantastic years as I've said, with another two years maybe more frustration was coming or more things were coming, so at that time I felt it was the right time to join a new project and a renewed motivation."

Despite the frustration, Alonso has no regrets about how not being in the right car at the right time has left that third title out of his reach. He accepts that's just the way the sport is.

"This is also the good thing about F1, that there is this component also about the car, about the package, about making it not predictable every race, anything can happen.

"I've been racing in go-karts for many, many years, I was racing in different categories before F1 where all the cars were the same, and I've been winning every single category that I was racing. For me I understand F1, and I understand also that I've been very lucky to win some championships.

"Everything's about racing in my life. Even when I go to my circuit now in a go-kart, I race. It's my life."

He's not afraid to criticise the state of the sport, and especially the fact that cars of recent years have been less challenging than those of a decade ago.

Future outside F1

When he does some infer that he is tiring of F1, and thus he's inevitably been linked to an imminent switch to sportscar racing. But while he's made no secret of his Le Mans ambitions, he's not in a hurry to make a move, and he remains hopeful that F1 2017-style will be more exciting for drivers.

"Every time that I say something it has a big repercussion. When I open talk about things, the problems that I see with my experience...

"Maybe the drivers that arrived two or three years ago, they only know this F1. But me, who drove 16 years in F1, I drove many interesting cars. I drove the maximum technology of F1, I drove the best timed laps in F1.

"When I see all these truths, these facts, maybe some of the people they don't want to tell, or they didn't experience other F1s.

"Automatically they think that I'm not enjoying it, or will change category. It will happen one day, but who knows when this day is coming. I think this year the things will improve, will be more spectacular, a faster car is what should be."